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Germany  s  Just  Cause 

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iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 


GERMANY'S 
HOUR  OF  DESTINY 


BY 

COLONEL    H.    FROBENIUS 


WITH    PREFACE    BY 

WILLIAM  R.  SHEPHERD 

PROFESSOR   OF   HISTORY   IN    COLUMBIA  UNIVERSITY 


NEW  YORK 

THE    INTERNATIONAL    MONTHLY    INC. 
1123  BROADWAY 
1914 


•Jt" 


COPYRIGHT,  1914, 

BY 
THE   INTERNATIONAL   MONTHLY   INC. 


INTRODUCTION 

BY  WILLIAM  R.  SHEPHERD  * 

The  little  book,  of  which  the  following  is  a  translation, 
first  appeared  last  March  and  has  already  entered  upon  its 
twelfth  edition.  It  is  the  German  answer  to  a  work  written 
some  years  ago  by  Homer  Lea,  an  American  soldier  who  won 
fame  at  the  time  of  the  Boxer  outbreak  in  China.  Frank, 
earnest,  genuine  in  tone  and  in  statement,  it  offers  a  clear-cut 
study  of  the  international  situation  that  brought  on  the  pres- 
ent war.  It  possesses,  also,  the  great  merit  of  brevity. 

In  this  book  one  finds  naught  of  the  "mailed  fist,"  of 
"sabre-rattling"  or  any  of  the  other  bogies  which  the  oppo- 
nents of  Germany  and  her  ally  conjure  up.  It  strives,  instead, 
to  explain,  calmly  and  logically,  what  a  German  patriot  be- 
lieves to  be  his  country's  viewpoint.  It  is  just  the  sort  of 
document  that  should  appeal  to  the  American  reader  of  open 
mind  who  refuses  to  allow  the  quantity,  rather  than  the  qual- 
ity, of  information  to  aid  him  in  framing  his  judgment.  It 
serves  not  to  shake  our  neutrality,  but  to  strengthen  it. 

The  author  describes  the  motives  and  aims  of  the  chief 
powers  now  engaged  in  the  struggle  across  the  seas.  For 
many  years  they  have  been  playing  a  gigantic  game.  The 
moves  and  counter-moves,  indeed,  can  be  traced  for  centuries 

*Professor  of  History  in  Columbia  University,  New  York.  He  has 
devoted  special  attention  to  the  problems  involved  in  the  expansion  of 
the  European  nations,  and  has  traveled  widely  in  Europe,  Asia  and  Latin 
America. 


4  INTRODUCTION 

on  the  map  of  the  world.  Diplomatically  they  have  reached 
a  deadlock.  Choosing,  then,  to  ignore  the  fact  that  Germany 
has  spent  far  less  on  armaments  than  they  have,  and  accusing 
her  of  a  "militarism,"  which,  however,  has  kept  the  peace  for 
more  than  forty  years,  her  three  great  antagonists  have  been 
preparing  to  break  the  peace  and  to  use  the  armaments :  Rus- 
sia— to  throw  down  the  walls  of  Berlin  and  Vienna,  which 
bar  the  way  to  Constantinople  and  the  North  Atlantic ;  Eng- 
land— to  dismantle  the  fleet  that  guards  a  growing  merchant 
marine,  and  France — to  regain  the  territories  lost  in  an  ear- 
lier war. 

From  a  national  standpoint,  as  nations  are  constituted  to- 
day, the  desires  of  Russia,  England  and  France  are  perfectly 
legitimate ;  but  so  also  are  the  interests  of  Germany  and  Aus- 
tria-Hungary. It  is  only  fair,  therefore,  that  the  American 
who  loves  his  country  and  hates  hypocrisy  should  uhear  the 
other  side,"  especially  when  it  is  presented  in  so  candid  and 
straightforward  a  fashion. 


GERMANY'S    HOUR   OF   DESTINY 

BY  COLONEL  H.  FROBENIUS,  RETIRED 

It  cannot  be  said  that  the  federation  of  the  German 
States  and  the  renaissance  of  the  German  Empire  in  1870-71 
aroused  great  satisfaction  in  any  European  country.  It 
seemed  to  the  Great  Powers  that  the  political  balance  in 
Europe  had  been  disturbed  by  the  fact  that,  in  the  central 
region,  which  hitherto  had  supplied  them  with  a  welcome 
battleground  for  their  struggles,  there  had  arisen  a  power 
which  commanded  respect;  and  they  were  able  to  instill  such 
fear  of  "plunder-loving  Germany,'1  and  of  her  "greed  for 
territory,"  in  the  smaller  states,  that  even  to-day  the  experi- 
ence of  forty-three  years  of  peace  has  been  unable  to  eradi- 
cate it.  Yet  by  placing  a  great  restraint  upon  itself,  even  to 
the  extent  of  occasionally  waiving  its  lawful  rights,  this  new 
Empire,  strong  by  reason  of  its  military  force,  has  proven 
itself  a  rock  of  security,  and  is  chiefly  responsible  for  these 
long  years  of  peace. 

There  has  indeed  been  no  lack  of  pretexts  for  war  dur- 
ing this  period,  and  often  the  great  statesmanship  of  a 
Bismarck  was  necessary  to  extinguish,  before  it  was  too  late, 
the  glowing  spark  which  threatened  to  set  fire  to  all  Europe. 
However,  since  Russia  is  no  longer  bound  by  any  treaty, 
since  her  interests  have  driven  France  into  the  arms  of  Rus- 
sia, and  since  England  believes  her  economic  and  military 
supremacy  in  the  world  at  large  to  be  threatened  by  Ger- 
many, conditions  are  beginning  to  shape  themselves  so  un- 
favorably for  the  German  Empire  that  its  patience  will  be 
unable  to  endure  the  policy  of  annoyance  much  longer,  and 


6  GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

the  probability  of  a  warlike  solution  at  not  too  distant  a  time 
must  be  reckoned  with.  Let  us  examine  what  would  be  the 
interests  of  the  chief,  and  therefore  most  dangerous  oppo- 
nents of  Germany  in  such  a  war,  which  would  doubtless 
involve  the  whole  of  Europe. 

I.  GREAT    BRITAIN 

An  American,  but  an  enthusiastic  Anglo-Saxon,  Homer 
Lea,  published  a  book  a  short  time  ago,  "The  Day  of  the 
Saxon,"  translated  by  Count  E.  Reventlow,  as  "Des  Britis- 
chen  Reiches  Schicksalsstunde"  (Berlin,  1913,  E.  S.  Mittler 
&  Son) .  In  this  he  describes  the  dangers  which  have  threat- 
ened the  British  world  empire,  since  it  has  lost  so  much  of 
its  former  prowess  and  has  neglected  its  preparations  for  war 
(so  far  as  a  sufficient  land  force  is  concerned),  to  such  an 
extent  that  it  is  no  longer  in  a  position  to  protect  its  gigantic 
possessions  all  over  the  world.  "The  old  ideals,"  he  says, 
"that  made  possible  the  Empire  have  been  put  aside.  The 
militant  spirit  has  become  of  secondary  consideration;  it  is 
now  hardly  more  than  the  spirit  of  trade,  lazy  and  satisfied 
with  the  accumulation  of  things  which  are  useless  to  national 
and  racial  progress."  On  the  other  hand  this  world  empire, 
extending  over  the  whole  earth  and  embracing  all  its  princi- 
pal regions,  presents  enormous  difficulties  in  the  way  of  the 
expansion  of  other  nations.  Consequently,  a  conflict  with 
the  principal  states  that  are  in  urgent  need  of  expansion,  Ger- 
many and  Japan,  is  inevitable,  springing  as  it  does  from  in- 
terests vital  to  the  life  of  these  states.  In  the  case  of  Russia, 
however,  which  still  has  a  vast  territory  at  the  disposal  of  her 
steadily  increasing  population,  the  motive  for  expansion  lies 
in  a  natural  endeavor  to  secure  an  assured  means  of  commu- 
nication with  the  ocean.  According  to  Homer  Lea,  Ger- 
many seems  to  be  England's  most  dangerous  opponent; 
indeed,  England  should  never  have  permitted  it  to  become 
united.  She  should  rather  have  taken  advantage  of  the  dis- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY  7 

union  and  dissension  of  Europe  after  Napoleon  to  make  her- 
self mistress  of  the  European  continent.  Whether  she  had 
the  opportunity  and  power  to  do  it,  the  author  does  not  con- 
sider. Indeed,  since  1870,  Germany  has  actually  become  a 
dangerous — not  opponent — but  rival  of  England  in  the  mar- 
kets of  the  world.  The  first  blow  at  England's  highly  de- 
veloped industry  was  made  by  Alfred  Krupp,  as  early  as  the 
London  World's  Fair  of  1851,  when  to  the  greatest  achieve- 
ment of  the  English  steel  industry,  a  block  of  1,000  pounds,, 
he  opposed  a  similar  one  of  4,400  pounds;  and  when,  in  the 
World's  Fair  of  1862,  in  addition  to  a  block  of  4,000 
pounds,  he  was  able  to  exhibit  breech-loading  guns  and  huge 
propeller-shafts  for  ships,  he  won  for  the  German  iron  in- 
dustry the  first  place  which  had  so  long  been  claimed  by  the 
English.  The  perfect  efficiency  of  his  movable  campaign- 
guns  in  the  war  of  1870-71  secured  German  gun-making  a 
place  in  the  world  which,  thanks  to  the  untiring  energy  of 
our  manufacturers,  could  not  be  disturbed  even  by  the  great 
efforts  of  English  industry.  Energetic  representatives  of 
other  industries,  too,  rushed  into  the  breach  made  by  Krupp, 
and  the  resultant  commerce,  spreading  to  all  parts  of  the 
world,  soon  enabled  Germany  to  become  an  important  rival 
in  the  world  market. 

She  was  not  yet  a  dangerous  one,  because  as  long  as  the 
British  fleet  had  undisputed  control  of  all  the  sea-routes,  if 
it  came  to  the  worst,  the  German  merchant  marine  could,  at 
the  first  favorable  opportunity,  be  swept  off  the  sea  with  little 
delay.  The  war  of  trade  began  to  be  dangerous  only  when 
Germany  commenced  to  build  warships  to  protect  her  com- 
merce, and  finally  proceeded  from  a  purely  defensive  coast 
protection  to  the  construction  of  a  fleet  of  war  which  devel- 
oped into  a  considerable  factor  in  German  military  power. 
The  political  causes  for  the  opposition  of  England  are  due  to 
an  astonishing  and  obvious  enough  fear  of  German  naval 
power.  In  order  to  make  plain  the  motives  which  have  hith- 
erto shaped  England's  policy,  let  us  review  her  past. 


8  GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

Ever  since  this  country  has  played  a  part  in  the  history 
of  the  great  naval  Powers,  that  is  to  say,  ever  since  she 
started  to  secure  for  herself  a  position  as  a  maritime  power, 
her  opponent  has  always  been  the  strongest  naval  state  at 
that  particular  time.  Just  as  she  was  in  constant  opposition 
to  the  world  dominion  of  Spain  and  Portugal,  as  long  as 
these  countries  ruled  the  sea,  so  she  turned  against  Holland, 
as  soon  as  that  country,  after  winning  its  independence  from 
the  Spanish  yoke,  had  gained  for  itself  the  position  of  mis- 
tress of  the  seas.  The  moment  Holland,  misunderstanding 
its  fundamental  and  vital  necessities,  and  hard  pressed  on  its 
land  frontier,  neglected  its  naval  equipment,  England  took 
the  field  against  another  power,  against  France,  which  under 
Colbert's  wise  leadership,  was  growing  powerful  at  sea. 
Great  Britain  persisted  in  this  opposition  as  long  as  no  other 
country  seemed  to  her  more  dangerous.  Wherever  we  find 
France,  impelled  by  a  restless  ambitious  policy,  caught  in 
some  conflict,  there  we  find  Great  Britain  invariably  on  the 
side  of  the  opponent,  even  when  English  interests  were  not 
directly  concerned.  And  we  find  this  state  of  affairs  un- 
changed until  there  appeared  on  the  horizon  another  power 
that  threatened  the  Island  Kingdom  even  more  formidably 
than  our  western  neighbor. 

Slowly,  but  steadily,  Russia  had  extended  her  boundaries 
in  Asia.  With  rare  obstinacy  she  sent  her  Cossack  hordes  to 
the  east  and  south,  and  England  saw  that  she  must  prepare 
herself  for  the  moment  when  her  own  endeavors  at  expan- 
sion, with  India  as  her  point  of  departure,  would  meet  with 
opposition  from  Russia.  The  danger  arose  from  the  fact 
that  there  her  strength  was  not  great;  that,  therefore,  in  a 
conflict  in  the  heart  of  Asia,  she  might  easily  be  at  a  disad- 
vantage. It  was  necessary  to  wait  for  an  opportunity  to  en- 
counter her  future  opponent  at  sea.  This  presented  itself 
when  Russia  tried  to  increase  her  powers  in  the  Balkans  in 
the  war  against  Turkey.  The  Crimean  War  broke  out  and 
suddenly  we  find  England  allied  with  her  arch  enemy, 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY  9 

France,  against  the  newer  and  more  dangerous  one.  For  a 
while  peace  appeared  to  reign  between  the  two  chief  naval 
powers;  but  this  state  of  affairs  did  not  last  long.  Although 
since  that  time  they  have  not  actually  been  at  war,  it  is  still 
well  remembered  what  a  bitter  diplomatic  struggle  between 
the  two  countries  was  occasioned  in  the  last  quarter  of  the 
past  century  by  the  partition  of  Africa  and  the  renewed  colo- 
nial expansion  of  France  in  Asia  and  the  South  Seas.  In 
1889  the  English,  concerned  at  France's  naval  power,  con- 
siderably increased  their  fleet,  and  in  1898  both  fleets  were 
mobilized  as  a  result  of  the  Fashoda  affair.  Thereupon  the 
first  German  naval  law  was  promulgated. 

With  one  stroke  England  changed  her  policy.  The 
English  had  hitherto  regarded  the  development  of  Ger- 
many's naval  interests  unfavorably  and  had  tried  to  check 
them  wherever  possible;  but  the  diplomatic  struggle  which 
we  are  now  accustomed  to  consider  perennial  did  not  begin 
until  that  moment.  The  more  friendly  aspect  which  she  oc- 
casionally assumes  must  not  deceive  us  in  this  respect;  it  is 
generally  for  the  purpose  of  concealing  secret  animosity. 
And  this,  in  accordance  with  the  whole  course  of  English  his- 
tory, is  inevitable.  As  soon  as  the  German  people,  under  the 
rule  of  a  far-seeing  monarch,  conscious  of  their  strength  and 
of  a  definite  purpose,  prepared  to  forge  a  useful  naval 
weapon,  it  was  in  accordance  with  English  principles  to  re- 
gard that  power  .as  the  enemy.  But — let  this  be  understood 
— it  is  the  enemy,  because  it  is  building  a  fleet,  and  when  this 
is  destroyed,  the  pretext  for  hostility  will  immediately  disap- 
pear. .  .  .  The  fleet  destroyed,  German  commerce  will  natu- 
rally be  deprived  of  the  protection  it  surely  needs,  and,  its 
merchant  marine  annihilated,  it  will  be  reduced  to  a  cipher  in 
the  world  market  and  can  only  re-establish  itself  slowly  and 
with  difficulty. 

Homer  Lea  is  indeed  of  the  opinion  that  the  British 
world  empire  can  be  saved  only  by  the  complete  destruction 
of  Germany,  and,  according  to  his  view,  there  are  two  sides 


io          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

to  the  military  relationship  between  them.  The  military  re- 
lationship of  Germany  to  the  British  Empire  possesses  a  two- 
fold significance.  "While  the  Saxon  can  deal  with  Russia 
only  on  land,  or  with  Japan  only  by  sea,  a  war  with  Germany 
includes  both  land  and  sea.  The  severity  of  this  struggle 
will  be  in  keeping  with  the  means  and  forces  employed :  twice 
as  great  as  with  Russia  or  with  an  insular  power  like  Japan. 
We  have  said  that,  if  Germany  gains  control  of  the  sea,  the 
war  is  brought  to  a  close  by  this  single  act,  and  ends  in  the 
downfall  of  the  Empire.  On  the  other  hand,  should  the 
British  navy  destroy  that  of  Germany,  the  only  result  is  that 
conditions  remain  the  same  as  they  were  before  the  war,"  for 
"only  in  a  war  with  an  insular  nation  is  the  navy  pre-eminent. 
In  a  war  against  Russia  it  has  no  place.  In  an  offensive  con- 
flict with  Germany  it  is  of  secondary  importance.  The  Brit- 
ish navy  has  one  duty — to  remain  supreme  in  its  sphere,  the 
sea.  From  the  beginning  to  the  end  it  is  restricted  to  the 
defensive.  The  army  alone  possesses  the  power  capable  of 
deciding  the  war,  and  of  insuring  such  peace  as  will  prolong 
the  existence  of  the  Empire."  He  claims  that  it  is  necessary 
for  the  future  greatness  of  Germany  to  destroy  the  Anglo- 
Saxon's  world  supremacy,  and  to  build  up  her  own  world 
power  out  of  the  fragments,  while  he  declares  that  it  is 
England's  chief  duty  to  destroy  German  power. 

From  such  considerations  Homer  Lea  deduces  the  neces- 
sity for  Great  Britain  to  create  an  invincible  land  force  for 
the  protection,  not  only  of  the  Island  Kingdom,  but  of  the 
colonies  as  well.  It  is  known  that  efforts  in  this  direction 
have  been  made  of  late  in  England  to  a  considerable  extent 
and  with  the  support  of  personages  of  standing,  without 
overcoming  the  resistance  of  the  nation.  Such  a  measure 
would  not  only  go  contrary  to  England's  deep-rooted  concep- 
tion of  personal  liberty,  but  would  also  be  opposed  to  those 
traditions,  preserved  in  spite  of  fate  and  fortune,  in  accord- 
ance with  which  it  has  utilized  the  military  forces  of  other 
countries  on  land,  and  by  their  sacrifices  has  reaped  the  two- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          n 

fold  advantage  of  crushing  a  resistance  disagreeable  to  Eng- 
land and  of  weakening  in  a  salutary  manner  the  strength  of 
the  allies.  For  there  is  the  possibility  that  in  a  short  time 
they  may  be  transformed  into  active  opponents.  And  should 
not  such  a  course  of  action  be  considered  practical  in  refer- 
ence to  Germany  as  well  ? 

But  more  of  this  hereafter.  First  of  all  a  hasty  glance  at 
British  measures  to  secure  permanent  supremacy  on  the  ocean, 
measures  which  serve  not  only  as  protection  for  the  commerce 
of  the  United  Kingdom,  but  for  preparations  for  war  as 
well.  With  admirable  clear-sightedness,  she  has  always  been 
able  to  find,  in  all  parts  of  the  ocean,  the  countries  which 
command  the  trade  routes  and  to  annex  them  ruthlessly.  By 
means  of  Gibraltar,  she  controls  the  entrance  to  the  Mediter- 
ranean; by  means  of  Malta,  the  communication  between  its 
eastern  and  western  basin;  and  by  means  of  Cyprus,  the  en- 
trance to  the  Suez  Canal,  which,  together  with  Egypt,  is  en- 
tirely in  her  hands.  Thereby  she  controls  the  shortest  water- 
route  to  India,  the  India  Ocean,  and  the  Pacific.  But  she 
extends  her  influence  over  the  longer  route  by  way  of  Africa 
through  St.  Helena  and  Ascension,  as  well  as  through  her 
African  colonies,  while  the  route  from  the  Red  Sea  into  the 
Strait  of  Babel  Mandeb  is  protected  by  the  island  of  Perim. 
The  way  to  the  Pacific  Ocean  leads,  furthermore,  through 
the  Strait  of  Malacca,  and  here  a  British  port  was  made  in 
Singapore.  The  construction  of  railroads  was  intended  to 
afford  the  European  states  the  possibility  of  rendering  them- 
selves independent  of  the  water  routes  under  the  control  of 
England.  Russia  did  succeed  in  making  connection  with  the 
Pacific  by  means  of  the  Siberian  Railroad,  but  her  desire  to 
acquire  a  permanently  useful  port  was  frustrated  by  the  oppo- 
sition of  Japan.  Germany  started  building  the  Anatolian 
and  Bagdad  roads;  whereupon  England  succeeded  in  wrest- 
ing an  important  point,  Koweit,  from  Turkey  and  through 
the  possession  of  the  Bahrein  Islands  and  Cape  Jask,  in- 
creased the  obstacles  which  she  can  oppose  to  all  shipping  out 


12         GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

of  the  Persian  Gulf.  Only  one  newly  made  water  route  has 
escaped  British  inroads,  the  Panama  Canal,  that  connects  the 
Caribbean,  or  as  one  may  well  call  it,  the  American  Mediter- 
ranean, directly  with  the  Pacific  Ocean,  and  from  that  abso- 
lute British  supremacy  on  the  sea  has  received  a  considerable 
blow.  The  island  kingdom  is  obliged  to  share  her  power- 
chiefly  in  the  Pacific  Ocean — with  other  great  naval  powers. 
However,  she  shares  it  only  with  the  adjoining  states,  Japan 
and  the  United  States,  which  possess  naval  stations  there, 
and  with  France,  which,  it  is  true,  was  able  to  save  portions 
of  her  territory  in  the  East  Indies  from  the  greed  of  the 
English,  and  to  increase  her  authority  in  Madagascar  and 
Indo-China.  She  does  not  share  it  with  Germany,  which  does 
not  possess  a  single  port  of  refuge  on  the  whole  route  from 
its  possessions  in  Africa  to  the  Pacific. 

And  not  only  free  water  routes  are  necessary  for  naviga- 
tion, now  that  sailing  ships  have  been  supplanted  entirely  in 
the  navy,  and  in  the  merchant  marine  to  a  certain  extent,  by 
steamships.  As  every  step  of  progress  that  has  been  won  by 
humanity  can  be  made  only  at  the  cost  of  sacrifice,  so  naviga- 
tion has  had  to  renounce  unlimited  freedom  of  action  in  re- 
turn for  the  manifold  advantages  of  the  steam-engine ;  a  ship 
is  absolutely  dependent  on  its  supply  of  fuel  for  the  boiler. 
Moreover,  as  a  warship  must  carry  the  considerable  burdens 
of  its  armature,  artillery,  and  ammunition  besides,  it  is  impos- 
sible for  even  the  largest  warships  to  exceed  a  certain  limit  in 
the  amount  of  fuel  they  can  carry.  In  consequence  of  this 
the  length  of  time  that  a  supply  necessary  for  a  certain  speed 
can  last,  as  well  as  the  distance  which  a  ship  can  cover  without 
new  supplies,  that  is,  the  radius  of  action,  is  limited.  If  a  re- 
newal of  supplies  cannot  be  effected,  the  vessel  is  as  unable 
to  proceed  as  a  locomotive,  when  the  supply  of  coal  and  water 
has  given  out. 

With  the  introduction  of  steamships,  all  sea-going  na- 
tions had  to  consider  the  question  of  placing  coaling  stations 
at  given  distances.  For  this  purpose,  of  course,  only  islands 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          13 

and  seaports  which  could  afford  sufficient  protection  for 
the  transfer  of  coal  were  suitable,  and  the  ownership  for 
these  must  be  acquired.  Great  Britain  pursued  this  policy 
which  proved  an  efficient  weapon  in  her  commercial  rivalry 
with  Germany,  although  it  was  a  great  obstacle  to  the  utiliza- 
tion of  her  fleet  in  the  decisive  war  she  anticipated.  She  suc- 
ceeded in  thwarting  every  attempt  of  the  German  Empire  to 
win  naval  or  coaling  stations.  Every  movement  and  under- 
taking of  German  ships  was  viewed  with  suspicion,  and  when- 
ever it  was  even  remotely  possible  that  an  attempt  might  be 
made  to  secure  a  port  for  a  coaling  station,  a  diplomatic  pro- 
test or  actual  threats  immediately  followed.  We  can  all  re- 
member how  in  the  struggle  for  Morocco,  France  was  quite 
willing  to  grant  certain  regions  to  Germany,  until  England's 
threatening  attitude  encouraged  her  to  resistance  and  forced 
Germany  to  abandon  all  pretensions  to  possessions  there. 

As  a  result  of  this  attitude  on  the  part  of  our  cousins 
across  the  channel,  Germany's  merchant  and  war  marine  were 
reduced  to  supplying  themselves  with  coal  from  the  stations 
of  other  nations,  chiefly  from  those  of  England.  Aside 
from  the  fact  that,  in  return  for  this  mark  of  hospitality, 
there  are  fixed  charges  for  German  ships  and  the  resultant 
profit  goes  to  a  foreign  nation,  the  question  arises,  where  is 
Germany  to  find  friendly  nations  who  will  supply  her  ships 
with  fuel  in  case  of  war?  English  and  French  ports  would 
be  unquestionably  closed  to  her;  and  whether  the  ports  of  the 
small  European  States  would  be  open  to  her  in  defiance  of 
Great  Britain's  threats  is  more  than  doubtful.  Here  we  have 
an  actual  example  of  Germany's  need  of  elbow-room,  and  of 
the  manner  in  which  England  has  set  up  an  iron  barrier  in 
the  way  of  Germany's  necessary  expansion.  And  it  is  evi- 
dent that  sooner  or  later  it  will  be  absolutely  necessary  for 
Germany  to  break  these  bonds,  which,  in  the  long  run,  will 
render  her  navigation  unendurable,  and,  in  case  of  war,  ex- 
tremely dangerous.  For  this  purpose,  however,  annihilation 
of  Anglo-Saxon  world  supremacy  is  not  the  necessity  for  the 


14          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

future  greatness  of  Germany  that  Homer  Lea  claims  it  to  be. 
Germany's  wants  could  be  easily  supplied  out  of  the  excessive 
riches  of  English  possessions.  But  it  seems  as  if  England 
meant  to  continue  the  struggle  until  she  should  become  abso- 
lute ruler  of  the  seas.  Then,  according  to  her  principles,  she 
would  constantly  have  to  struggle  against  that  nation  at  the 
time  likely  to  become  most  dangerous;  she  would  have  to 
turn,  in  the  first  place,  against  Japan,  an  all  too  powerful  op- 
ponent in  the  Pacific  Ocean.  In  that  case,  she  would  have 
need  of  her  whole  naval  force  and  this  might  appear  hazard- 
ous in  view  of  the  strength  of  the  German  navy.  Hence  it 
would  seem  expedient  to  employ  the  first  favorable  opportu- 
nity of  destroying  the  latter,  her  earlier  enemy,  and  then  to 
gain  complete  freedom  of  action  in  the  Pacific.  For  this  pur- 
pose the  destruction  of  the  German  fleet  would  be  sufficient, 
and  there  is  no  need  of  that  complete  annihilation  of  the  Ger- 
man Empire,  which  Homer  Lea  insists  upon. 

Great  Britain  forged  for  herself  another  weapon,  a  net- 
work of  cables,  by  which  she  connected  all  parts  of  the  world 
with  one  another  and  with  the  Island  Kingdom.  For  com- 
mercial, as  well  as  for  naval  contests,  a  rapid  means  of  com- 
munication is  of  the  utmost  importance.  This  makes  possi- 
ble a  concentration  of  leadership,  by  means  of  which  a  nation 
may  profit  by  every  impending  danger,  and  thereby  subject 
her  opponent,  who  is  cut  off  from  the  news  service,  to  the 
most  unpleasant  surprises.  As  long  as  England  alone  con- 
trolled the  entire  network  of  cables,  she  could  at  will  prevent 
their  use  by  other  nations  whom  she  could  plunge  into  com- 
plete deafness  and  blindness  concerning  events  in  remote  parts 
of  the  earth.  Meanwhile,  she  preserved  her  own  powers  of 
hearing  and  vision  and  thereby  secured  all  the  advantages  of 
the  initiative.  The  realization  of  these  dangers  has  recently 
caused  other  nations  likewise  to  lay  cables,  which  are  able, 
independently  of  England — at  least  in  some  regions — to 
transmit  news  across  the  ocean.  But,  in  the  first  place,  these 
cables  do  not  form  a  complete  network,  and,  in  the  second,  it 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          15 

is  not  improbable  that,  in  case  of  war,  England  would  cut 
them,  and  thus  render  them  useless. 

The  invention  of  wireless  telegraphy  now  provides  us 
with  a  means  whereby  we  can  be  independent  of  the  cable 
system.  England  followed  its  development  very  attentively 
and  managed  to  have  the  seat  of  the  Marconi  Company  trans- 
ferred to  her  shores.  She  strove  with  all  her  might  to  secure 
for  herself  a  certain  monopoly  of  the  wireless  system  that 
she  might  in  this,  too,  rule  the  world.  Thanks  to  German 
science,  she  was  unsuccessful.  Germans  have  surpassed  Mar- 
coni's achievements  and  thus  have  obtained  a  certain  com- 
pensation for  their  lack  of  a  cable.  This  is  true,  of  course, 
only  within  certain  limits,  that  is,  so  far  as  German  appara- 
tuses are  effective  and  so  far  as  Germany  has  stations  which 
can  transmit  communications.  Therefore,  it  is  of  paramount 
significance  that  not  so  long  ago  the  Kaiser  was  able  to  ex- 
change wireless  messages  with  the  President  of  the  United 
States  of  America. 

It  is  readily  understood  and  generally  known  that,  in  an- 
ticipation of  a  severe  struggle  with  Germany,  England  has 
secured  powerful  allies.  To  what  extent  in  addition  to  Rus- 
sia and  France,  the  smaller  states,  Belgium,  Denmark  and  the 
Balkan  countries  are  involved,  is  not  yet  evident.  As  Eng- 
land must  reckon  not  only  with  the  German  Empire,  but  also 
with  the  Triple  Alliance,  the  roles  of  the  three  great  powers 
are  determined,  as  is  already  quite  clear.  Great  Britain  is  ap- 
parently trying  to  veil  her  intentions  and  to  lull  the  suspi- 
cions of  Germany,  while  she  regards  Italy  with  disapproving 
sternness.  Italy's  growing  fleet  and  in  addition  her  military 
occupation  of  the  Turkish  islands  in  the  ^Egean  Sea,  after 
the  war  between  Italy  and  Turkey,  are  most  undesirable  for 
England's  unlimited  control  of  the  Mediterranean.  It  seems 
as  though  the  Sublime  Porte  were  quite  satisfied  with  this 
state  of  affairs  and  hesitates  for  that  reason  to  withdraw  its 
last  officers  from  the  interior  of  Tripoli ;  and  so  Italy,  in  the 
meanwhile,  is  justified  in  keeping  the  islands,  to  prevent  their 


1 6          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

falling  into  other  hands.  When  Sir  Edward  Grey  declared 
that  the  situation  in  Europe  would  not  become  normal  so  long 
as  a  great  power  possessed  these  islands,  Italy  was  disagree- 
ably conscious  of  the  pressure  which  the  English  minister  at- 
tempted to  bring  to  bear  upon  her.  This  was  especially  no- 
ticeable, as,  at  the  same  time,  he  was  willing  to  leave  to  the 
discretion  of  the  Greeks  the  evacuation  of  that  part  of  Al- 
bania which  they  had  occupied,  although  in  the  meanwhile  in 
assembling  their  "holy  battalions"  on  disputed  grounds,  they 
had  not  given  evidence  of  a  very  compliant  attitude. 

To  Homer  Lea's  desire  that  Great  Britain,  in  order  to 
preserve  its  position  of  world  power,  should  annihilate  Ger- 
many, not  only  by  robbing  it  of  its  fleet  and  crippling  its 
commerce,  but  also  by  destroying  its  military  force,  I  oppose 
the  belief  that  England  cannot  wish  to  destroy  Germany's 
power  on  land.  That  would  be  contrary  to  her  whole  policy 
in  the  past.  A  strong  military  power  on  the  European  conti- 
nent is  indispensable  to  her,  in  order  to  divert  to  land  war- 
fare the  chief  attention  of  that  power  which  otherwise  might 
endanger  her  naval  supremacy.  The  political  game  which 
she  has  played  with  the  continental  countries  has  always  been 
based  on  this  central  idea.  Let  us  take  an  example.  At  the 
beginning  of  the  War  of  the  Austrian  Succession,  while 
France,  by  greatly  increasing  its  colonial  possessions,  was 
England's  greatest  rival  on  the  ocean,  Austria  was  the  great- 
est land  power,  hence  the  Island  Kingdom  assisted  her  in  the 
war  against  Prussia  allied  with  France.  In  1755,  after  Eng- 
land had  begun  to  combat  the  naval  forces  of  France,  she 
had  to  renounce  the  assistance  of  Austria,  which  had  united 
with  Russia  and  France  to  crush  Frederick  the  Great,  and  to 
range  herself  on  the  side  of  her  former  enemy,  the  King  of 
Prussia.  But  when  she  had  achieved  her  purpose,  when  she 
had  driven  the  French  fleet  out  of  the  East  Indies  and  had 
won  the  French  possessions  in  Senegal,  when,  in  1760  with 
the  storming  of  Montreal,  she  had  finally  torn  Canada  from 
the  French  and  had  weakened  French  naval  power  to  such  an 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          17 

extent  that  she  could  assert  herself  with  full  force  in  the 
West  Indies  and  limit  herself  to  blockading  European  ports 
— when,  at  last,  the  flourishing  power  of  France  was  crip- 
pled, she  suddenly  withdrew  her  assistance  from  her  Prussian 
ally.  Prussia  had  served  her  turn  in  diverting  the  attention 
of  the  French  from  the  sea.  She  must  now  manage  her  op- 
ponent alone,  for  England  had  no  longer  a  motive  for  injur- 
ing France.  It  is  customary  to  connect  this  sudden  change  of 
policy  to  Pitt's  retirement,  as  if  his  friendship  with  Frederick 
had  determined  England's  attitude.  One  can  scarcely  attrib- 
ute such  sentimentality  to  an  English  statesman. 

Austria  is  no  longer  able  to  play  the  part  against  France 
which  England  once  assigned  to  her!  But  a  new  power  has 
arisen  in  Russia,  whose  vital  interests  run  directly  counter  to 
those  of  England.  It  is  only  possible  to  preserve  the  balance 
of  power  against  Russia  by  the  opposition  of  a  strong  mili- 
tary force.  France  is  useless  for  this  purpose,  since  after  the 
overthrow  of  Germany,  she  would  immediately  resume  her 
former  position  of  second  strongest  European  military  and 
colonial  power.  The  role  against  Russia  can  be  assigned  only 
to  Germany;  and  the  purpose  of  the  alliance  (apparently  so 
contrary  to  their  mutual  interests)  between  England  and  Rus- 
sia, against  Germany,  is  twofold;  to  break  Germany's  com- 
mercial power,  and  to  undermine  thoroughly  the  long  stand- 
ing friendship  of  Germany  and  Russia  in  order  to  play  off 
Germany  against  Russia  in  the  future.  Therefore,  it  is  not  to 
England's  interest  to  destroy  Germany's  power  on  land.  On 
the  contrary,  the  purpose  of  war  would  be  to  destroy  its  fleet, 
while  sparing  its  army  as  much  as  possible. 

It  is  doubtful  whether  a  fleet  even  so  powerful  as  that  of 
England  could  accomplish  this  alone.  The  question  is  par- 
tially solved  by  a  British  author,  a  recognized  authority  and 
teacher  of  naval  strategy,  J.  S.  Corbett,  who  has  laid  down 
general  laws,  based  upon  former  proceedings  in  naval  war- 
fare, in  his  book  "Some  Principles  of  Maritime  Strategy" 
(London,  1911).  According  to  his  theory,  it  is  apparent 


1 8          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

from  an  examination  of  the  history  of  maritime  war  that  a 
contest  between  two  fleets,  leading  to  the  destruction  of  one 
of  them,  can  take  place  only  when  such  is  the  wish  of  both 
parties  concerned.  This  mutual  desire  for  a  decisive  outcome 
can  be  satisfied  only  in  open  battle,  when  both  parties  have 
some  prospect  of  victory,  i.  e.t  when  they  are  almost  equally 
strong.  If  this  is  not  the  case,  the  weaker  usually  attempts 
to  postpone  the  issue,  while  it  tries  to  weaken  its  opponent  by 
minor  operations,  until  it  can  venture  on  a  decisive  blow  with 
some  hope  of  success. 

Against  such  tactics  the  stronger  force,  as  Corbett  proves, 
has  always  found  itself  in  a  difficult  position.  Every  day  that 
delays  the  decision  costs  a  great  deal  of  money — and  coal  as 
well,  the  acquisition  of  which  is  always  fraught  with  difficul- 
ties; every  day  can  bring  unpleasant  surprises;  and  therefore, 
the  stronger  force  must  try  to  bring  about  the  decisive  mo- 
ment as  soon  as  possible.  This  may  be  accomplished  in  two 
ways;  either  by  destroying  by  main  strength  the  defences 
which  protect  the  enemy  in  his  fortified  forts  and  by  forcing  a 
way  under  fire  from  the  coast  forts,  into  the  harbor  where  he 
has  intrenched  himself  (and  one  has  seldom  the  audacity  to 
do  this),  or  by  dislodging  him  and  forcing  him  out  into  the 
open.  It  is  generally  impossible  to  accomplish  the  latter  al- 
ternative from  the  water  if  the  ports  are  well  protected.  In 
fact,  this  can  be  done  only  by  land  forces  brought  for  this 
purpose,  which  must  be  provided  with  the  necessary  heavy 
artillery,  in  order  to  gain,  by  means  of  an  unexpected  attack 
by  land,  positions  in  the  foreground  which  admit  of  an  effec- 
tive bombardment  of  the  fleet  anchored  in  the  harbor.  Thus  it 
would  be  compelled  to  set  sail  and  give  decisive  battle  to  its 
opponent.  The  conduct  of  the  Americans  at  Santiago,  Cuba, 
and  of  the  Japanese  at  Port  Arthur  exemplify  this  mode  of 
procedure.  Consequently,  the  British  fleet  of  war  unquestion- 
ably needs  the  support  of  an  adequate  military  force. 

Now  the  question  arises,  will  the  present  continental  allies 
of  England  render  her  this  service,  in  case  of  a  conflict  with 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          19 

Germany?  And  one  cannot  confidently  answer  in  the  affirm- 
ative, because  here  their  interests  are  already  at  variance. 
The  continental  powers  would  look  for  the  decisive  action 
along  the  shortest  route  between  Berlin  and  their  own  capi- 
tals, and  they  would  have  no  reason  to  break  up  and  consid- 
erably to  weaken  their  military  forces  by  furnishing  large 
numbers  of  troops  and  large  supplies  of  ammunition  for  the 
bombardment  of  German  coast  defences.  On  the  contrary, 
they  would  probably  wish  to  destroy  the  land  forces  of  Ger- 
many, while  sparing  her  fleet  as  much  as  possible — to  be  used 
as  a  menace  against  England,  their  future  opponent.  The 
lessons  to  be  learned  from  England's  past  policy  are  just  as 
evident  to  them  as  to  us,  and  enable  them  to  anticipate  their 
future  enemy  in  the  same  manner.  If  England  desires  to  ac- 
complish her  purpose,  that  is,  the  annihilation  of  German 
naval  power,  she  must  needs  make  use  of  her  own  unaided 
strength,  and  we  shall  make  no  mistake  in  assuming  that  the 
British  expeditionary  force  of  150,000  men  will  be  assigned 
the  task  of  supporting  the  fleet  by  a  descent  upon  the  coast  of 
the  enemy. 

The  further  question  as  to  what  the  attitude  of  these 
troops  will  be,  especially  as  to  how  far  they  will  share  in  the 
operations  of  the  allied  forces  and  be  considered  as  reinforce- 
ments to  the  allies,  can  be  answered  by  a  few  sentences  of  the 
English  naval  strategist.  They  are  as  follows : 

"This  much  is  certain:  The  nation  that  commands  the 
sea  can  do  as  it  likes  and  can  take  as  much  or  as  little  part  in 
the  war  as  it  chooses;  whereas  even  those  who  are  strongest 
by  land  may,  nevertheless,  often  find  themselves  in  great 
straits."  (p.  55.) 

"If  the  object  of  the  war  were  unlimited  and  would 
consequently  call  forth  your  enemy's  whole  power,  it  is  evi- 
dent that  no  decision  of  the  struggle  could  be  reached 
till  his  war  power  was  entirely  crushed.  Unless  one  had  a 
reasonable  hope  of  being  able  to  do  this,  it  would  be  a  bad 
policy  to  seek  satisfaction  by  force,  that  is,  one  ought  not  go 


20          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

to  war.  In  the  case  of  a  limited  object,  however,  the  com- 
plete destruction  of  the  enemy's  armed  force  would  be  more 
than  necessary."  (p.  42.) 

"If  now  we  turn  to  British  experience  of  continental  war, 
we  find  that  a  land  force  has  frequently  been  used,  but  we 
also  find  the  policy  almost  invariably  accompanied  by  a  popu- 
lar disapproval  as  though  there  were  something  in  it  antago- 
nistic to  the  national  instinct."  (p.  60.) 

These  three  quotations  characterize  England's  method  of 
taking  part  in  the  wars  of  the  continent.  Since  the  beginning 
of  the  seventeenth  century,  she  has  almost  always  had  at  her 
disposal  the  necessary  means  of  assuring  to  herself  the  con- 
trol over  the  seas,  or  at  least  of  claiming  that  favorable  state 
of  affairs  which  Corbett  calls  "disputed  ownership."  This 
fortunate  country  has  nearly  always  been  able  to  meddle  in 
the  wars  of  the  European  powers  to  this  extent  and  "to  get  as 
much  out  of  them  as  she  wanted." 

What  she  wanted  of  them  is  evident  from  the  second 
quotation.  Corbett  is  an  admirer  of  our  strategist,  Clause- 
witz,  and  in  his  differentiation  of  the  two  distinct  objects  of 
war,  the  limited  and  the  unlimited,  he  bases  his  conclusions 
on  the  latter's  teachings.  Clausewitz  characterizes  them  with 
these  words:  "These  two  kinds  of  warfare  are,  first,  the 
one  in  which  the  object  is  the  downfall  of  the  opponent,  either 
to  destroy  him  politically  or  simply  to  render  him  defense- 
less and  to  force  him  to  a  disadvantageous  peace,  and  second, 
the  one  in  which  the  object  is  merely  to  make  certain  conquests 
on  the  boundaries  of  the  country,  either  with  the  intention  of 
keeping  them  or  of  using  them  as  a  means  of  exchange  when 
the  terms  of  peace  are  arranged."  The  first  case  demands 
that  the  whole  national  strength  be  exerted;  the  second  does 
not.  Clausewitz  gives  an  instructive  example  of  war  with 
limited  purpose  in  a  commemorative  address  of  1830-31, 
which  contains  a  plan  of  attack  against  France.  Conditions 
did  not  warrant  a  consideration  of  the  complete  overthrow  of 
this  state,  and  the  suggestion  of  the  German  strategist  was  to 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          21 

make  the  conquest  of  Belgium  the  actual  object  of  attack. 
"This  country  of  medium  size  and  great  sources  of  supply  is 
bounded  by  Holland  and  Germany;  after  its  conquest  the 
power  that  establishes  itself  there  will  not  constitute  a  strate- 
gical point  extending  into  distant  hostile  territory,  and  conse- 
quently, this  conquest  can  be  permanently  maintained  even 
under  ordinary  circumstances.  The  French  might  establish 
themselves  in  Belgium  as  strongly  as  they  liked;  they  would 
always  be  in  a  weaker  position  than  in  the  midst  of  their  own 
country.  When  an  army  had  made  itself  master  of  the  Meuse 
River,  it  might  consider  the  conquest  of  Belgium  as  on  the 
whole  accomplished.  We  therefore  believe  that,  if  the  arms 
of  the  allies  can  win  a  victory  anywhere,  and  this  must  neces- 
sarily be  assumed  in  the  case  of  any  offensive  attack,  the  con- 
quest of  Belgium  would  afford  the  easiest  and  at  the  same 
time  least  permanent  victory." 

If  we  analyze  the  history  of  England,  we  must  admit  that 
though  at  times  she  has  exerted  the  full  strength  of  individual 
parts  of  her  defensive  forces,  her  navy  and  her  finances,  yet 
that  demand  for  the  whole  national  force,  in  which  every  man 
who  could  shoulder  arms  has  been  called  to  enlist,  as  in  Prus- 
sia-Germany in  1813  and  in  France  in  1870,  has  never  been 
made.  She  was  able  to  avoid  this  by  the  fact  that  she  never 
waged  war  with  unlimited  purpose — a  splendid  illustration  of 
Clausewitz's  teachings.  With  the  exception  of  war  in  the 
colonies,  she  never  desired  completely  to  conquer  a  country 
or  to  destroy  an  opponent.  She  always  had  a  limited  object 
which  she  sought  to  attain  unaided :  seizure  of  individual  pos- 
sessions across  the  sea,  destruction  of  hostile  naval  forces,  or 
commercial  advantages.  This  may  be  due  partly  to  a  very 
clever  policy,  partly  to  that  attitude  of  the  people  to  which 
Corbett  alludes.  The  British  nation  has  never  had  any  liking 
for  or  sympathy  with  the  hard  service  of  land  warfare,  ser- 
vice which  commands  innumerable  sons  of  the  peasantry  to 
shoulder  arms,  and  tears  them  from  home  and  hearth.  Either 
she  employed  for  this  purpose  mercenary  troops,  when  pos- 


22          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

sible,  or  else  she  caused  her  allies  to  shed  blood  for  her  aims, 
and  for  them,  of  course,  the  war  could  easily  develop  into  an 
unlimited  one.  We  need  only  instance  the  wars  of  Frederick 
the  Great. 

Since  England  wages  war  with  limited  purpose  only  and 
dislikes  to  employ  her  army,  one  can  draw  one's  own  conclu- 
sions as  to  what  her  future  policy  will  be  in  regard  to  the  use 
of  her  land  force.  Again  Corbett  shows  the  way.  He  says: 
"Either  the  expeditionary  force  must  act  as  an  organic  unit  of 
the  power  which  is  making  unlimited  war  without  any  reser- 
vations whatever,  or  else  it  should  be  given  a  definite  terri- 
torial object  with  an  independent  leadership  and  organization, 
but  with  a  limited  function."  (p.  59.) 

"But,  what  may  be  called  the  British  or  maritime  form  is 
in  fact  the  application  of  the  limited  method  to  the  unlimited 
type  of  warfare,  as  auxiliary  to  the  larger  operations  of  our 
allies — a  method  which  has  usually  been  open  to  us  because 
the  control  of  the  sea  has  enabled  us  to  select  a  theatre  in  effect 
truly  limited"  (p.  63.) 

This  completely  characterizes  England's  method  of  land 
warfare.  It  is  immediately  assumed  that  the  continental  ally 
will  have  to  carry  on  a  war  with  an  unlimited  object,  and  the 
chief  burden  will  be  gradually  transferred  to  him.  On  the 
other  hand,  it  is  typical  of  the  British  that  their  expeditionary 
force  is  directed  to  avoid  this  as  much  as  possible.  There- 
fore, her  co-operation  as  an  organic  unit  of  the  force  of  our 
enemies  can  be  expected  only  when  Great  Britain  has  no  other 
means  of  accomplishing  her  particular  purpose. 

A  glance  at  the  history  of  war  shows  us  better  than  any 
explanation  Corbett's  idea  of  this  method  of  warfare. 

Since  the  war  of  the  Spanish  Succession,  in  which  Marl- 
borough  advanced  close  on  the  borders  of  South  Germany 
with  British  reinforcements,  in  order  that  together  with  the 
imperial  army  he  might  fight  a  bloody  and  decisive  battle 
with  Louis  XIV,  never  has  an  English  army  penetrated  into 
the  continent,  so  long  as  there  was  the  slightest  uncertainty  as 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          23 

to  the  outcome.  Only  in  Holland  or  in  Hanover,  during  the 
wars  of  Frederick  the  Great,  that  is  always  close  to  the  coast 
line,  do  we  see  British  troops  conducting  a  hesitating  and 
painstakingly  indecisive  war.  Who  has  forgotten  the  wav- 
ering of  the  Duke  of  Cumberland,  which  the  names  of  Fon- 
tenoy  in  1745,  Lafeld  in  1747,  Hastenbeck  in  1757  and  the 
capitulation  of  Kloster  Zeven  call  to  memory? 

Then,  too,  in  the  course  of  the  Spanish  war  against  Na- 
poleon, when  the  unlucky  Moore  was  replaced  by  the  more 
skillful  Lord  Wellesley,  we  see  the  English  (so  long  as  their 
opponent  is  not  wholly  overcome),  carefully  maintaining  a 
line  of  communication  with  the  sea.  And  where  it  is  cut  off 
on  one  side,  it  is  cleverly  set  up  again  in  another  direction. 
Only  once,  at  Waterloo,  do  we  see  an  English  army  taking 
part  in  a  decisive  battle.  But  here  after  the  defeat  of  the 
allied  forces,  any  delay  in  the  settlement  of  affairs  meant  the 
prospect  of  a  most  undesirable  prolongation  of  the  war,  and 
Wellington  had  no  choice  in  the  matter. 

"So  all  the  way  through  we  find  an  endeavor  to  preserve 
the  line  of  communication  with  the  base  of  supply,  which  for 
the  British  is  the  sea-coast,  wherever  there  are  ports  suitable 
for  the  embarkation  of  troops,  and  to  avoid  a  decision  as  long 
as  it  is  not  forced  upon  them  by  the  nature  of  the  case.  With 
this  goes  an  avoidance  of  anything  that  would  oblige  them  to 
join  too  closely  in  the  operations  of  their  allies;  that  is  what 
one  may  call  the  British  or  maritime  method." 

With  this  preface  we  can  attempt  to  form  an  idea  of 
Great  Britain's  probable  procedure  in  case  of  a  war  with 
Germany. 

What  she  would  want  most  would  doubtless  be  to  employ 
her  military  force  quite  independently,  and  if  she  could,  from 
a  consideration  of  the  preparations  for  war  and  the  strength 
at  the  disposal  of  the  allied  forces,  assure  herself  that  they 
could  cope  with  the  German  army  alone,  she  would  assert 
this  independence  by  her  choice  of  the  seat  of  war.  If  she 
were  not  confident  of  this,  and  if  the  preservation  of  inde- 


24          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

pendent  action  on  the  part  of  her  expeditionary  force  should 
be  doubtful,  the  latter,  functioning  chiefly  as  an  organic  sec- 
tion of  the  whole,  would  have  to  take  part  in  the  operations 
of  the  whole.  In  this  case  a  landing  in  Belgium — out  of  the 
reach  of  the  influence  of  German  troops — would  enable  Brit- 
ish troops  to  extend  the  left  wing  of  the  French  army. 

Involuntarily,  one  recalls  the  opposition  of  the  English 
press  to  the  prlan  of  the  Dutch  to  renew  the  old  fortresses  of 
Flushing  and  to  replace  them  with  new  ones,  which  would  not 
only  be  able  to  protect  its  modern  harbor  against  its  use  by 
the  enemy,  but  also  to  create  obstacles  against  the  use  of  the 
western  Scheldt  for  an  entrance  to  Antwerp.  In  the  face  of 
the  indisputable  right  of  a  sovereign  state  to  provide  for  the 
defence  of  a  harbor  of  importance  to  its  own  fleet  (Holland 
has  only  one  other,  that  of  Helder) ,  and  for  the  fulfilment  of 
its  duties  as  a  neutral  state,  this  was  a  strange  opposition.  So 
was  the  fact  that  the  French  and  Belgian  press  united  with 
the  English  in  intimidating  the  Dutch  in  order  to  cause  the 
failure  of  the  government's  plan. 

Herein  lies  the  basis  for  the  assumption  that,  in  case  of 
war  with  Germany,  England's  purpose  is  to  land  her  expedi- 
tionary force  in  Antwerp,  in  order  to  place  them  at  the  side 
of  France.  And  even  if  the  new  fortification  of  Flushing,  as 
long  as  it  is  limited  to  a  single  line  of  defence  on  the  right 
bank  of  the  river  is  Incapable  of  offering  a  lengthy  resistance 
against  attack,  yet  it  could  operate  most  unfavorably  upon 
the  entrance  of  so  strong  a  transport  fleet  as  the  transfer  of 
the  British  army  would  necessitate,  and  considerably  delay  a 
proposed  landing  in  Antwerp.  Everything  would  depend 
upon  the  rapidity  of  action — otherwise,  British  assistance 
would  arrive  too  late  and  prove  practically  useless. 

Admitting,  therefore,  that  the  British  expeditionary  force 
in  one  way  or  another  could  succeed  in  joining  with  the 
French  left  wing  and  be  enabled  to  take  part  in  the  opera- 
tions before  it  was  too  late ;  admitting  that  the  first  great  vic- 
tories over  the  German  armies  had  been  won,  and  that  they 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          25 

were  sufficiently  occupied  by  the  French  troops,  then  the  sec- 
ond desired  step  for  the  British  troops  would  begin  when  they 
freed  themselves  from  undesired  unlimited  war  and  continued 
to  work  independently,  that  is,  to  seek  for  a  limited  territorial 
sphere  of  action.  In  accordance  with  Great  Britain's  pur- 
pose, this  can  be  only  the  German  coast  of  the  North  Sea, 
into  the  harbors  of  which,  according  to  our  presumption,  the 
German  fleet  being  the  weaker,  has  withdrawn.  The  Brit- 
ish naval  forces  are  already  expectantly  waiting  for  the  Ger- 
man ships  to  be  driven  out  to  them  after  the  army's  successful 
bombardment  of  the  land  fortresses,  so  as  to  destroy  them  as 
was  done  at  Port  Arthur. 

How  much  time  this  would  require,  cannot  be  determined. 
The  memory  of  Port  Arthur  warns  us  that  we  must  count  on 
considerable  sacrifice  of  time  and  of  human  lives.  At  all 
events,  the  goal  cannot  be  reached  in  the  turn  of  a  hand;  and, 
therefore,  it  is  not  impossible  that  the  line  of  communication 
of  the  present  besieging  army,  hitherto  protected  by  French 
and  Belgian  ports,  might  be  greatly  endangered  by  German 
attempts.  The  English  have,  however,  always  been  very  dex- 
terous in  changing  their  lines  of  communication,  when  these 
have  been  jeopardized.  There  is  a  good  example  of  their 
mode  of  operation  in  the  case  of  England's  Spanish  campaign 
against  Napoleon  in  1808-9.  Napoleon  advanced  victorious 
from  Madrid  against  the  British  troops  in  Portugal.  An 
English  corps  under  the  leadership  of  Sir  John  Moore,  which 
Napoleon  believed  to  be  in  retreat,  outflanked  him  and 
threatened  his  line  of  supplies  from  the  direction  of  the 
Duero.  When  Napoleon  turned  against  it  and  in  his  turn 
broke  through  its  line  of  communication  with  Lisbon,  it  re- 
treated, pursued  by  Marshal  Soult,  toward  the  northwest, 
where  the  British  General  Baird  had  meanwhile  landed  at 
Corunna.  Although  the  ships  arrived  here  late,  and  Moore 
had  to  give  battle  before  the  city  in  which  he  himself  was 
killed,  the  embarkation  succeeded  and  the  English  corps  was 
able  to  return  home. 


26          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

For  the  event  of  a  war  with  Germany,  England  has  al- 
ready prepared  herself  and  secured  a  second  line  of  communi- 
cation by  (to  put  it  mildly)  promoting  the  extension  of  the 
tiny  harbor  of  Esbjerg  on  the  Danish  west  coast  of  Jutland. 
Esbjerg  lies  at  a  distance  of  about  18  miles  from  the  Ger- 
man-Danish frontier,  and  hitherto  the  basin  of  its  entire  har- 
bor was  about  39  acres  in  extent  and  had  a  depth  of  13  to  20 
feet.  The  entrance  to  the  "Grantief"  had  a  depth  of  25  feet, 
but  was  obstructed  by  a  sandbar  through  which  a  passage 
had  been  made  by  dredging.  Those  conditions  would  fully 
suffice  for  the  export  trade  of  butter  and  eggs  to  England. 
Now,  however,  the  basin  of  the  harbor  has  been  enlarged  to 
the  extent  of  100  acres,  quays  nearly  two  miles  long  have 
been  constructed,  which  will  enclose  a  harbor  of  198  acres 
when  it  is  completely  dredged,  and  a  water  depth  of  27  feet 
will  be  reached.  It  is  very  evident  that  such  a  dispropor- 
tionate widening  of  the  harbor  is  not  calculated  for  the  ex- 
port of  butter  and  eggs  alone. 

We  can  scarcely  doubt  that  in  the  event  of  war,  Denmark 
will  favor  our  opponents.  All  the  fortifications  in  the  king- 
dom indicate  this.  The  coast  forts  of  Copenhagen  are 
being  increased  and  strengthened  in  order  to  barricade  the 
waterways  (especially  the  Drogden)  in  a  southerly  direc- 
tion; in  other  words  toward  the  German  waters;  the  land 
forts,  which  would  operate  chiefly  against  an  attack  from 
the  north,  are  neglected  and  apparently  completely  aban- 
doned. Of  greater  significance  are  the  newly  constructed 
fortresses  of  the  Great  Belt.  Flanking  these  there  is  a  wide 
arm  of  the  sea  between  the  islands  of  Zeeland,  Falster, 
Laaland  and  Langeland,  the  exits  to  which  are  all  barred 
by  fortresses,  so  that  it  can  be  compared  to  a  fox-hole,  since 
the  much  indented  seacoast  of  the  islands  affords  innumer- 
able hiding  places  that  would  favor  an  attack  on  the  Bay 
of  Kiel  and  the  Fehmarnbelt,  as  well  as  the  exit  of  the 
Oeresund,  and  would  be  exceedingly  difficult  to  attack.  To 
crown  it  all,  Minister  Meergard  has  stated  the  purpose  of 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          27 

this  fortified  bay  plainly:  to  facilitate  communication  in 
several  ways  with  the  seat  of  war,  and  thus  to  make  possible 
an  attack  on  the  hostile  fleet.  Therefore,  if,  on  the  one 
hand,  Belgium  were  chosen  as  a  means  to  the  first  step  for 
the  British  expeditionary  forces,  aiding  in  a  war  with  un- 
limited object,  on  the  other  hand,  to  Denmark  is  allotted 
the  part  of  providing  a  strong  naval  base  and  point  of  de- 
parture for  the  land  forces  in  the  second  step.  This  would 
be  a  war  with  limited  object,  in  this  case  an  attack  on  the 
German  harbors  and  the  destruction  of  the  fleet. 

Aside  from  the  less  important  undertakings  of  the  Brit- 
ish fleet,  Great  Britain  would,  according  to  Corbett,  leave 
to  her  allies  the  task  of  engaging  the  German  land  forces 
so  that  only  small  divisions  would  be  able  to  advance 
against  the  English  operating  in  a  limited  area,  while  the 
latter  would  have  as  their  sole  aim  the  annihilation  of  the 
German  fleet.  Thus  the  expeditionary  force  would  need 
to  fight  only  these  weak  divisions. 

Now  the  question  arises  whether  England's  allies  would 
be  satisfied  with  such  a  division  of  labor  and  with  a  limita- 
tion of  British  troops  to  this  restricted  purpose.  If  we  may 
adopt  the  idea  of  an  unnamed  French  General,*  this  seems 
very  doubtful.  He  takes  up  the  principal  points  in  this 
manner. 

i.  Purpose  of  landing:  "As  far  as  the  strategic  points 
are  concerned,  that  will  depend  on  the  general  situation.  It 
might  be  necessary  to  rush  assistance  to  the  French  against 
the  German  troops  invading  France,  or  to  assist  the  Rus- 
sians hard  pressed  by  the  Germans  and  the  Austrians  on 
the  banks  of  the  Vistula  and  the  Dniester."  (pp.  32-33.) 

"A  feeling  of  discomfort  is  aroused.     The  people  be- 


*"Die  englische  Invasion  in  Deutschland,"  von  einem  franzosischen 
Generalstabsoffizier.  Verlag  "Politik,"  Berlin,  1912.  ("The  English 
Invasion  of  Germany/'  by  an  officer  of  the  French  General  Staff. 
Published  by  "Politik,"  Berlin,  1912.) 


28          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

come  uneasy.  The  soldiers  become  panic-stricken.  .  .  .  All 
this  makes  a  breach  in  the  self-confidence  of  all  con- 
cerned. .  .  .  Other  Allies  will  appear :  The  Danes  or  the 
Dutch,  as  the  case  may  be."  (pp.  7-8.) 

2.  Place  of  Landing:  In  short,  anywhere.     The  author 
seems  to  prefer  the  mouth  of  the  Ems,  or  the  Vistula.     But 
other  points  on  the  coast  of  the  Baltic  Sea   (Danish  terri- 
tory)   are  considered  suitable. 

3.  Means  of  Landing:   Deception  as  to   the   intended 
point  and  surprise. 

As  a  matter  of  course,  such  advice  for  the  utilization 
of  the  British  land  forces  is  not  to  be  considered  authorita- 
tive for  the  French  command.  Nevertheless  it  affords  a 
conception  of  the  ideas  which  are  current  on  this  point  in 
the  military  headquarters  of  our  western  neighbor,  and  of 
the  wishes,  which  they  express  to  their  English  allies;  that 
is,  that  they  would  prefer  to  regard  the  English  expeditionary 
force  as  a  purely  auxiliary  force,  as  reinforcements,  not  op- 
erating on  an  independent  plan,  established  by  the  British 
staff  of  command,  but  only  held  in  readiness  to  furnish  as- 
sistance wherever  the  course  of  the  war  might  render  it 
desirable  to  rescue  one  ally  or  another,  either  the  French 
in  their  country,  or  the  Russians  on  the  Vistula,  or  the 
Dniester.  We  may  presume  that  the  English  fleet  will  be 
able  to  cope  with  the  German,  even  without  the  assistance 
af  land  forces.  The  Allies  would  content  themselves  even 
without  the  entire  annihilation  of  Germany. 

This  view  appeared  once  before  when  it  was  a  question 
of  the  promise  made  by  the  English  Government  to  France, 
to  send  an  army  of  relief  in  case  of  a  war  with  Germany. 
It  was  to  be  employed  as  auxiliary  troops  for  the  French 
Army,  and  there  was  no  mention  of  its  independent  utiliza- 
tion for  special  purposes  in  the  interest  of  England.  In 
France  the  opinion  prevailed  that  England  would  unselfishly 
furnish  a  military  force  to  serve  French  interests.  This  is 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          29 

preposterous  in  the  case  of  this  country,  which  never  yet 
subordinated  its  own  interests  to  those  of  other  nations. 
Quite  the  contrary,  in  many  cases  it  utilized  their  forces  for 
its  own  purposes  and  interests. 

At  this  point  it  is  already  obvious  that  the  interests  of 
England  and  her  allies  are  widely  divergent,  owing  to  the 
fact  that  their  wishes  are  so  incompatible.  Great  Britain 
must  wish  to  destroy  our  fleet,  but  to  spare  our  army.  France 
and  Russia  must  endeavor  to  crush  the  German  army  and 
preserve  the  fleet  as  a  trump-card,  which  can  be  played  in  the 
future  against  the  increasingly  powerful  Island  Kingdom. 

It  is  interesting  to  note,  from  the  utterances  of  the  French 
officer,  that  his  countrymen  count  unfailingly  upon  the  help 
of  Denmark  and  even  of  Holland,  but  are  prudently  silent 
on  the  score  of  Belgium.  If  the  neutral  states  had  not  joined 
the  alliance  before  the  beginning  of  the  war,  the  appearance 
of  English  troops  on  the  German  coast  must  bring  this  about 
and  produce  an  over-powering  effect  on  the  morale  of  the  Ger- 
man troops,  even  though  the  invading  army,  as  the  author 
says,  were  soon  to  be  checked  at  the  coast  by  the  German 
army  of  defense,  and  find  itself  limited  to  defensive  warfare. 
Such  a  paralysis  of  their  forces  might  not  suit  the  English 
after  all. 

The  fabulous  armament  of  her  two  allies  might  well 
astonish  England.  If  her  aim  is  to  destroy  the  German  fleet 
at  any  cost;  if  (in  accordance  with  Corbett's  advice),  she  en- 
trusted her  expeditionary  force  with  the  limited  object  of 
driving  our  fleet,  should  it  withdraw  into  the  harbors,  out 
under  the  cannon  of  her  warships,  then  she  cannot  want  the 
war  to  come  to  a  rapid  end,  since  for  her  purpose  she  needs 
time,  considerable  time.  If  the  enormous  French  and  Rus- 
sian forces,  pouring  in  upon  Germany  simultaneously  from 
opposite  sides  should  succeed — and  for  this  purpose  the  arma- 
ments have  been  so  increased — in  crushing  out  armies  with  a 
few  mighty  blows,  England,  with  her  dilatory  methods 
(sieges  and  the  conquest  of  seaports),  might  conceivably 


30          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

find  that  she  had  not  sufficient  time  to  accomplish  this,  re- 
gardless of  the  fact  that  she  is  not  particularly  concerned 
about  the  destruction  of  the  German  army. 

Perhaps  England  seems  more  friendly  to  us  for  that  rea- 
son at  present.  Perhaps  the  consideration,  that  the  attack 
and  destruction  of  our  navy  and  merchant  marine  is  impos- 
sible without  damage  and  loss  to  her  own  fleet,  is  gaining 
ground.  Germany  is  England's  best  customer,  and  she  in 
turn  relies  in  many  respects  upon  German  industry.  Great 
Britain  has  more  merchant  ships  on  the  high  seas  than  we 
and  they  are  less  liable  to  destruction  by  our  cruisers  than 
are  ours  by  the  English.  The  English  merchant  ships  can- 
not obtain  sufficient  protection  from  her  warships  on  the  dis- 
tant seas,  should  these  be  detained  in  European  waters  to 
overpower  our  fleet.  Finally,  the  Island  Kingdom  is  de- 
pendent to  such  a  degree  upon  a  constant  supply  of  provi- 
sions, that  the  discontinuance  of  them  would  bring  about 
famine,  and  with  it  quite  appreciable  distress  within  a  very 
short  time.  The  proof  of  this  was  shown  in  the  strike  of  the 
longshoremen,  which  by  cutting  off  the  supply  of  foodstuffs 
in  the  harbors  of  the  capital,  exposed  its  population  to  fam- 
ine. England  has  not  only  the  advantages  of  a  situation  se- 
cure against  a  strong  invasion,  but  also  the  disadvantages 
contingent  to  it  As  long  as  the  Island  Kingdom  was  sole 
mistress  of  the  seas,  these  disadvantages  were  not  important 
and  she  could  allow  herself  the  luxury  of  neglecting  her  own 
agriculture  in  order  to  give  her  sole  attention  to  industry  and 
allow  herself  to  be  nourished  by  foreign  countries.  These 
times  are  over  forever.  England  cannot  conceal  from  her- 
self the  fact  that  she  must  already  share  her  control  of  the 
sea  with  other  nations.  Nor  could  this  be  changed  by  the  de- 
struction of  our  fleet;  for  everywhere  fleets  grow  out  of  the 
water,  and  even  rich  Albion  cannot  permanently  keep  pace 
with  the  general  strife  for  naval  power. 

Besides  this,  the  fact  is  that  it  is  not  only  a  question  of 
large  amounts  of  money,  but  also  of  the  manning  of  the  great 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          31 

warships  that  are  being  constantly  built,  and  are  useless  with- 
out a  very  strong  crew.  Secretary  of  State  v.  Tirpitz  recent- 
ly informed  us  that  expenses  for  the  navy  in  the  last  five 
years  have  increased  by  $54,000,000  in  England,  in  Germany 
only  $13,750,000;  that  we  are  far  behind  not  only  Great 
Britain,  but  also  her  two  allies,  since  the  increase  in  France 
amounts  to  $33,500,000  and  in  Russia  for  the  fleet  of  the 
Baltic  Sea  alone  to  as  much  as  $75,500,000.  This  should 
give  the  British  something  to  think  about.  As  for  the  sec- 
ond point,  the  manning,  it  is  an  open  secret  how  difficult  it  is 
in  the  case  of  a  gradual  increase  of  a  fleet  to  provide  at  the 
proper  time  for  the  augmentation  and  the  training  of  its 
complement  of  men,  not  so  much  in  the  case  of  sailors  as  in 
that  of  engineers  and  officers. 

It  is  no  secret  for  us  that  Great  Britain  is  at  present  at  a 
disadvantage  in  this  very  respect.  It  was  affirmed,  and 
doubtless  correctly  so,  that  Mr.  Churchill  suggested  to  Ger- 
many a  year's  holiday  from  the  construction  of  warships,  in 
order  to  gain  a  year  in  which  to  acquire  the  necessary  trained 
crew  and  officers.  It  was  a  clever  idea,  as  England  could 
sufficiently  occupy  her  dock-yards  in  shipbuilding  for  other 
powers  and  need  not  even  lag  behind  in  the  supply  of  her  own 
ships,  since  in  case  of  need  the  foreign  ships,  lying  at  her 
wharves,  could  immediately  be  impressed  into  her  own  navy. 
Germany  was  not  caught  in  the  net,  however — for  the  sim- 
ple reason  that  she  did  not  know  how  to  provide  employment 
for  her  own  dockyard  laborers  during  a  whole  year.  The 
proposal  has,  however,  contributed  toward  urging  our  rep- 
resentatives in  the  Reichstag  to  greater — let  us  say — pru- 
dence regarding  our  cousins  across  the  sea,  since  the  word 
"mistrust"  is  taboo  at  present.  It  may  not  be  out  of  place 
either  to  recall  the  fact  that  England  (at  France's  request  in 
February,  1870)  inquired  confidentially  of  the  Prussian 
Government  if  it  would  not  consent  to  a  simultaneous  de- 
crease of  the  military  contingent  on  the  part  of  both  nations 
in  the  interest  of  European  peace,  and  this  took  place  almost 


32          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

immediately  before  the  outbreak  of  the  war  with  France,  the 
instigation  of  which  I  need  not  refer  to.  (Cf.  Bismarck's 
letter  of  Sept.  2,  1870.) 

Thus  there  are  many  reasons  why  England  should  avoid 
picking  a  quarrel  with  Germany  at  present.  It  is  said  that 
the  relations  between  the  two  states  are  less  strained,  and  that 
a  more  cordial  spirit  is  developing;  it  is  even  recognized  that 
in  many  questions  they  can  work  together,  for  the  two  coun- 
tries have  numerous  interests  in  common. 

But  we  must  not  forget  that  it  was  England  that  provoked 
this  menacing  coalition,  unnatural,  because  not  based  upon 
community  of  interest,  and  that  she  endeavored  to  cause  our 
few  remaining  friends  to  desert  us.  It  must  not  be  believed 
that  our  blood-relationship  to  England  has  the  least  influence 
or  that  she  would  avoid  attacking  us  because  hitherto  we 
have  really  never  crossed  swords.  How  should  England 
ever  have  had  any  idea  of  fighting  us,  as  long  as  we  were  not 
bold  enough  to  build  a  fleet  to  protect  our  coast  and  our 
great  growing  commerce?  It  was  this  very  thing  that 
changed  the  condition  of  affairs.  If,  therefore,  Great  Britain 
has  every  reason  not  to  advance  impetuously,  but  rather  to 
hold  back  prudently,  we  must  not  deceive  ourselves  into 
thinking  that  she  will  not  seize  the  first  favorable  opportunity 
for  taking  us  by  surprise  and  for  casting  the  declaration  of 
war  into  our  harbors  with  the  first  cannon-shots.  Even  though 
she  be  inclined  to  peace  herself,  her  allies  will  have  very  little 
inclination  to  support  to  no  purpose  the  burden  of  an  ar- 
mament which,  for  France,  at  least,  is  not  bearable  much 
longer.  When  they  consider  the  time  to  be  ripe,  England 
will  not  be  able  to  stand  back. 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          33 


II.     RUSSIA 

Our  eastern  neighbor  has  really  no  reason  to  harbor  a 
grudge  against  Germany.  Even  though  Germany's  conduct 
at  the  Congress  of  Berlin  in  1878  has  repeatedly  been  de- 
scribed in  Russia  as  treachery  and  thereby  the  prejudice 
against  us  has  been  increased,  yet  we  are  fully  justified  in 
bringing  forward  the  representation  of  events  that  Prince 
Bismarck  has  given  in  his  "Reflections  and  Reminiscences"  to 
which  I  will  refer. 

In  response  to  the  Russian  inquiry  whether  Germany 
would  remain  neutral  if  Russia  went  to  war  wffh  Austria, 
Bismarck,  when  pressed  for  a  definite  answer,  in  October, 
1876,  gave  the  Russian  ambassador  the  following  reply: 
"Our  first  care  was  to  preserve  the  friendship  between  the 
great  monarchies,  which  in  a  struggle  with  one  another  had 
more  to  lose  as  regards  their  opposition  to  the  revolution  [in 
the  Balkan  principalities]  than  they  had  to  win.  If,  to  our 
sorrow,  this  was  not  possible  between  Russia  and  Austria, 
then  we  could  endure  indeed  that  our  friends  should  lose  or 
win  battles  against  each  other,  but  not  that  one  of  the  two 
should  be  so  severely  wounded  and  injured  as  to  endanger 
its  position  as  an  independent  Great  Power,  taking  its  part 
in  the  councils  of  Europe."  (II,  p.  214.)  Thereupon  the 
Russian  storm  clouds  withdrew  from  Galicia  to  the  Balkans, 
and  Russia  bought  the  neutrality  of  Austria  by  the  cession  of 
Bosnia  dnd  Herzegovina  in  the  treaty  of  Reichstadt. 

"The  result  for  Russia,  even  after  the  Congress  of  Berlin, 
remained  one  of  the  most  favorable,  if  not  the  most  favor- 
able, which  she  has  ever  obtained  since  the  Turkish  wars." 
(II,  p.  106.)  But  "the  indignation  of  Russia  at  the  result 
of  the  Congress  of  Berlin  was  one  of  the  manifestations 
which  become  possible,  though  contrary  to  all  truth  and  rea- 
son, in  a  press  so  little  intelligible  to  the  people  as  that  of 
Russia  in  its  foreign  relations,  and  with  the  coercion  which  is 


34          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

easily  exercised  upon  it.  The  whole  influence  which  Gort- 
chakoff  .  .  .  was  strong  enough  to  represent  in  the  press, 
with  the  Moscow  "Viedomosti"  at  its  head,  produced 
an  appearance  of  indignation  at  the  injury  which  Rus- 
sia through  German  perfidy  suffered  at  the  Berlin  Con- 
ference. But  the  fact  is  that  no  wish  was  expressed 
by  Russia  at  the  Berlin  Congress  which  Germany  would 
not  have  proposed  for  acceptance,  if  circumstances  re- 
quired, by  energetic  representation  to  the  English  Prime 
Minister.  Instead  of  being  grateful  for  this,  it  was 
found  conducive  to  Russian  policy,  under  the  leadership  of 
Prince  Gortchakoff  and  the  Moscow  newspapers,  to  work 
on  toward  a  further  estrangement  between  Russia  and  Ger- 
many, for  which  there  is  not  the  slightest  necessity  in  the  in- 
terest of  either  one  or  the  other  of  these  great  adjoining  em- 
pires. We  envy  one  another  nothing,  and  have  nothing  to 
win  from  one  another  which  we  could  turn  to  account."  (II, 
p.  108.) 

"It  was  expected  at  St.  Petersburg  that  in  the  diplomatic 
discussion  for  carrying  out  the  decisions  of  the  Berlin  Con- 
gress we  should  immediately  in  every  case  support  and  carry 
through  the  Russian  interpretation  as  opposed  to  that  of  Aus- 
tria and  England,  and  especially  without  any  preliminary  un- 
derstanding between  Berlin  and  St.  Petersburg.  The  demand 
which  I  at  first  only  indicated,  but  afterwards  unequivocally 
expressed,  that  Russia  should  tell  us  confidentially,  but  plain- 
ly, her  wishes,  so  that  they  might  be  discussed,  was  evaded; 
and  I  had  the  impression  that  Prince  Gortchakoff  expected 
from  me,  as  a  lady  from  her  admirer,  that  I  should  guess  at 
and  represent  the  Russian  wishes  without  Russia  having  her- 
self to  utter  them,  and  thereby  to  undertake  any  responsibil- 
ity. Even  in  cases  where  we  could  assume  that  we  were  com- 
pletely certain  of  Russian  interests  and  intentions,  and  where 
we  believed  ourselves  able  to  give  a  voluntary  proof  of  our 
friendship  toward  the  Russian  policy  without  injuring  our 
own  interests,  we  received  a  grumbling  disapproval,  because, 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          35 

as  it  was  alleged,  we  had  not  met  the  expectations  of  our  Rus- 
sian friends.  Even  when  that  was  undoubtedly  the  case,  we 
had  no  better  success.  In  the  whole  proceeding  lay  a  calcu- 
lated dishonesty,  not  only  toward  us,  but  toward  the  Em- 
peror Alexander,  to  whose  mind  the  German  policy  was  to 
be  made  to  appear  dishonest  and  untrustworthy."  (II,  pp. 
217-218.) 

It  is  known  that,  in  consequence  of  these  intrigues,  the 
Emperor  Alexander  was  prompted  to  send  an  autograph  let- 
ter to  Emperor  William  to  this  effect:  "If  the  refusal  to 
adapt  the  German  vote  to  the  Russian  is  adhered  to,  peace 
between  us  cannot  be  maintained."  (II,  p.  219.)  In  1879, 
also,  it  was  due  only  to  the  wisdom  and  mildness  of  our  aged 
Emperor  that  Gortchakoff's  coquetry  with  France  did  not 
lead  to  a  war  between  Germany  and  Russia.  Perhaps,  how- 
ever, the  French  did  not  find  the  moment  propitious,  as  the 
words  of  the  Russian  prince  seem  to  imply:  "I  should  have 
wished  to  go  to  war,  but  France  has  other  intentions."  (II, 
p.  219.) 

There  is  no  doubt  that  the  complaints  about  our  attitude 
at  the  Congress  of  Berlin  are  only  pretexts  and  have  no  foun- 
dation, a  fact  which  Russian  diplomats  have  long  realized; 
but  they  afford  a  desirable  means  of  agitation  and  are,  there- 
fore, constantly  reiterated.  The  political  developments 
which  destroyed  the  friendship  with  Germany  lie  in  another 
direction.  We  will  recognize  them,  if  we  follow  Russia's  at- 
tempts at  expansion. 

Here  Homer  Lea  points  out  the  way.  Since  the  begin- 
ning of  the  1 8th  century,  Russia  has  turned  her  endeavors  at 
expansion  in  certain  definite  directions,  which  were  deter- 
mined by  her  recognized  need  of  a  seacoast.  Though  the 
country  already  extended  from  the  Dnieper  to  Behring  Sea 
and  from  the  Arctic  Ocean  to  the  northwest  bank  of  the 
Caspian  Sea,  even  so,  sea  traffic  was  not  possible,  since,  on 
the  north,  the  water  front  is  hemmed  in  by  ice,  and  the  Cas- 
pian Sea  has  no  outlet.  In  the  northwest,  it  was  necessary  to 


3 6          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

oust  the  Swedes,  in  order  to  gain  possession  of  the  Baltic  Sea, 
and  on  the  west  to  tear  from  Poland  Little  and  White  Russia. 
On  the  south  Russia  is  bound  by  the  Black  Sea ;  on  the  south- 
east the  Caspian  Sea  and  the  Caucasus  Mountains  must  be 
protected,  and  the  route  through  Turan  to  India  must  not  be 
lost  sight  of.  On  the  East,  finally,  it  was  necessary  to  pos- 
sess economically  important  stretches  of  the  Pacific  seacoast. 

Russia  has  spared  no  sacrifice  of  time  or  men  in  achiev- 
ing this  purpose,  and  she  did  not  permit  herself  to  be  thwart- 
ed by  any  defeat,  however  bloody,  from  continuing  in  the 
same  path,  in  order  by  constant  perseverance  to  win  success. 
"Russia  in  her  progress,  is  concerned  no  more  with  the  de- 
vastation following  her  wars  than  is  Russian  nature  with  the 
destitution  caused  by  her  winters.  In  the  i8th  century  this 
empire  sent  into  her  wars  4,910,000  troops;  of  these  only 
1,380,000  survived.  In  the  I9th  century  the  number  of 
troops  engaged  was  4,900,000;  the  casualties  were  1,410,- 
ooo.  Yet  the  population  of  Russia  at  the  beginning  of  the 
1 8th  century  was  only  twelve  million,  at  the  beginning  of  the 
1 9th  only  thirty-eight  million.  Having  for  two  hundred 
years  witnessed  the  fortitude  and  determination  with  which 
Russia's  iyth  century  plans  for  expansion  have  been  pursued, 
we  are  unable  to  believe  that  she  will  voluntarily  abandon 
them.  Heretofore  these  same  Russians  have  never  faltered, 
never  hesitated;  without  haste,  always  hopeful  in  defeat,  reti- 
cent in  victory,  never  seeing  the  ground  they  have  furrowed 
with  combat  and  hillocked  with  their  dead,  they  have  kept 
their  eyes  constantly  on  those  distant,  yet  well  defined  hori- 
zons toward  which  they  have  been  directed."  (Homer  Lea, 
pp.  130-131.) 

We  now  have  to  follow  only  the  expansion  toward  the 
northwest,  the  west  and  the  south.  On  the  west,  after  the 
destruction  of  the  Polish  kingdom,  the  Russians  forced  their 
way  to  the  Pruth  River  and  across  the  Vistula ;  on  the  north- 
west, they  conquered  the  Baltic  provinces  and  drove  the 
Swedes  from  Finland;  on  the  south,  they  are  lords  of  the  en- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          37 

tire  coast  of  the  Black  Sea  from  the  mouth  of  the  Danube  to 
beyond  the  Caucasus.  But  even  so  they  have  not  attained 
their  object.  The  Baltic  Sea  is  connected  with  the  ocean 
only  by  narrow  and  dangerous  passages  and  these  narrow 
straits  can  easily  be  completely  blocked.  The  exit  from  the 
Black  Sea,  through  the  Bosphorus  and  the  Hellespont,  is 
closed  to  the  Russian  fleet  of  war  by  Constantinople  and  by 
treaties.  In  both  directions  Russia  has  come  considerably 
nearer  her  object,  it  is  true,  but  no  longer  are  there  small  and 
weak  nations  in  her  path.  Great  powers,  instead,  now  have 
decided  interest  in  stopping  the  victorious  advance  of  the 
Russians. 

The  Russo-Turkish  wars  of  the  last  century,  although 
they  were  waged  to  free  the  Christian  States  of  the  Balkans 
from  the  Turkish  yoke,  were  aimed  at  placing  these  states 
under  the  influence  and  suzerainty  of  the  Czar  and  were  to 
afford  him  an  entrance  to  Constantinople.  In  this  plan,  the 
interests  of  Austria  were  vitally  affected,  'for  her  whole  com- 
merce with  the  Orient  would  have  been  endangered.  To  this 
is  due  the  antagonism  between  Austria  and  Russia  every  time 
the  Balkan  question  crops  up.  This  was  very  apparent  in  the 
last  Balkan  war,  in  which  Russia  appeared  as  the  moving  spir- 
it and  permitted  herself  to  be  prevented  from  entering  into 
it,  preparations  for  war  having  already  been  made,  only  by 
the  fact  that  her  ally  France — as  in  1870 — was  not  sufficient- 
ly equipped  to  successfully  join  her.  For  against  these  allies, 
Germany  arose  threateningly,  and  Italy,  too,  felt  bound  more 
closely  to  Germany  by  the  endangering  of  her  considerably 
increased  interests  in  the  Mediterranean. 

Russia  has  always  realized  that  she  will  never  attain  her 
object  in  the  Balkans  without  waging  a  victorious  war  not 
only  against  Austria,  but  also  against  Germany.  This  binds 
her  fast  to  France,  on  whose  assistance  she  can  rely  under  all 
circumstances,  as  long  as  there  is  any  chance  of  overpowering 
the  Triple  Alliance.  Consequently,  it  is  not  the  fact  that 
Russia's  interests  run  directly  counter  to  those  of  Germany 


3 8          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

which  caused  the  recent  outcry  against  us,  but  rather  the  op- 
position which  our  ally  must  make  against  Russian  attempts 
in  the  Balkans,  in  order  to  protect  its  vital  interests,  and  the 
support  which  the  German  Empire  has  given  its  ally. 

In  the  northwest,  Russia  has  advanced  to  the  Tornea 
River  (Sweden).  A  distance  of  only  about  94  miles  separ- 
ates her  most  advanced  position  from  the  long  desired  har- 
bor on  the  ocean — Narvik,  in  the  bay  of  the  West  Fiord 
(Norway),  and  nothing  but  a  state  with  the  small  popula- 
tion of  5,500,000  stands  in  her  way.  All  preparations  to 
overrun  this  territory  have  been  made  for  some  time;  a  rail- 
road has  been  constructed  to  the  boundary  river  and  ends  at 
Tornea.  But  as  it  is  a  coast  railroad  it  can,  if  necessary,  be 
easily  threatened  by  an  enemy  commanding  the  sea.  Conse- 
quently, a  second  road  was  built  so  far  into  the  Finnish  mari- 
time provinces  that  the  frontier  is  not  more  than  250  miles 
distant  and  a  third  is  under  construction  farther  east.  Every 
means  is  being  employed  toward  the  Russification  of  Fin- 
land, and  troops  have  been  sent  forward  to  the  northern  gar- 
risons. In  short,  one  cannot  escape  the  impression  that  Rus- 
sia has  made  all  preparations  to  overcome  the  possible  oppo- 
sition of  Sweden  with  a  mighty  blow  and  to  force  a  passage 
to  Narvik,  on  the  shore  of  the  Atlantic. 

But  here,  too,  she  must  reckon  with  the  opposition  of 
Germany.  The  Swedes  are  fully  conscious  of  the  danger 
threatening  them.  In  order  to  send  troops  to  the  northern 
province  of  Norbotten,  which  is  very  sparsely  populated  on 
account  of  its  unfavorable  climatic  and  economic  conditions, 
and  to  provision  them  upon  the  scene  of  action,  a  railroad  has 
been  built  as  far  as  the  Tornea  River,  and,  as  basis  of  sup- 
port, at  Boden,  a  ring  of  fortifications  has  been  constructed 
on  the  Lulea  River,  about  63  miles  from  the  boundary  river, 
equipped  with  all  modern  means  of  defence.  So  the  passage 
through  to  the  coast  will  not  prove  altogether  easy  of  achieve- 
ment. The  entire  peasant  population  of  Sweden  has  been 
aroused  to  such  a  pitch  of  excitement  by  the  danger  which 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          39 

threatens  them  that  they  are  willing  to  contribute  life  and 
property  for  the  defense  of  their  country,  as  the  journey  of 
33,000  farmers  to  Stockholm  has  proven.  At  the  same  time 
many  a  longing  glance  falls  on  Germany,  a  powerful  people 
of  the  same  stock,  whose  armies  could  well  afford  powerful 
support  to  the  hard  pressed  little  folk.  So  it  is  by  no  means 
impossible  that  the  danger  which  Russia  threatens  may  be 
the  means  of  a  closer  bond  between  two  nations  already  so 
congenial,  with  whom  Russia  would  have  to  reckon.  That, 
too,  adds  a  plausible  reason  for  the  discord  with  Germany. 
Russia  has  received  innumerable  benefits  from  Germany. 
Without  the  large  immigration  from  our  country  in  particu- 
lar she  would  be  still  more  backward  in  her  development 
than  she  actually  is.  It  is  not  too  much  to  say  that  every- 
thing in  the  line  of  industrial  progress  in  Russia  has  arisen 
for  the  most  part  under  German  auspices,  that  even  in  the 
leading  positions  of  the  government,  the  most  important 
work  is  in  the  hands  of  men  of  German  descent,  even  though 
they  have  become  Russianized.  In  the  army  the  ablest  lead- 
ers are  generally  of  German  blood,  though  like  true  Germans 
they  have  adapted  themselves  to  the  customs  of  the  country 
to  which  they  have  consecrated  their  services  and  have  trans- 
formed themselves  into  the  most  faithful  and — in  contrast  to 
most  natives — unselfish  Russians.  But  the  mental  and  mate- 
rial services  which  Germany  has  rendered  Russia  have  never 
been  appreciated  by  the  latter.  On  the  contrary,  they  have 
generally  aroused  nothing  but  jealousy,  envy  and  hatred  and 
have  contributed  largely  at  times  to  the  persecution  of  the 
Germans  and  to  their  expulsion  from  the  country.  For  hatred 
of  the  Germans  lies  deep  in  the  heart  of  the  Slav,  as  is  appar- 
ent, not  only  in  Russia,  but  to  the  same  degree  in  the  Slavic 
portions  of  Austria-Hungary  and  in  the  Balkan  Peninsula. 
There  the  seeds  of  distrust,  which  France  endeavors  un- 
ceasingly to  sow,  thrive  all  too  well,  and  the  friendship  be- 
tween Germany  and  Austria-Hungary,  which  Gortchakoff 
attempted  in  vain  to  alienate,  thanks  to  Bismarck's  keen  eye 


40          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

and  clever  intervention,  was  bound  to  become  more  pro- 
nounced after  the  Balkan  war  ended  without  any  furtherance 
of  Russia's  ambitions. 

It  cannot  be  denied  that  the  hostile  relations  of  the  Bal- 
kan sister  states,  Bulgaria  and  Servia,  have  caused  Russian 
statesmen  much  annoyance,  though,  to  be  sure,  it  has  pre- 
vented the  creation  of  any  nation,  which  would  attempt  to 
withdraw  from  subjection  to  Russian  authority,  as  Rumania 
did.  She  had  to  suffer  sorely  from  Russia's  ingratitude  for 
her  self-sacrificing  aid  in  the  war  of  1877;  but  Bulgaria  and 
Servia  have  so  often  experienced  Russian  unreliability  and 
perfidy  that  it  is  astonishing  that  they  continue  to  bow  their 
necks  under  the  old  yoke,  and  listen  to  siren  songs  from  St. 
Petersburg.  Did  not  Servia  recently,  relying  on  the  promised 
support  of  Russia,  pick  a  quarrel  with  Austria-Hungary  and 
continue  it  with  astonishing  obstinacy  till  she  saw  that,  after 
all,  she  need  expect  no  help  from  Russia  ?  Was  not  Bulgaria 
placed  in  an  extremely  critical  position  in  1885,  at  the  out- 
break of  the  Bulgaro-Servian  War,  through  the  fact  that  the 
Czar  recalled  all  the  Russian  officers  who  held  the  leading  po- 
sitions in  the  Bulgarian  army?  Was  she  not  left  in  the  lurch 
last  year  when  she  trusted  in  Russia's  promise  to  prevent 
Rumania  from  intervening  in  the  war,  and  when  Russia  in- 
stead, in  a  measure,  commanded  Rumania  to  make  peace  by 
intervention,  just  at  the  time  when  Bulgaria  was  hard  pressed 
on  all  sides  by  the  Servians,  the  Greeks  and  the  Turks  ? 

Who  can  judge  what  will  eventually  result  from  the 
present  confusion  on  the  Balkan  peninsula?  Will  Bulgaria, 
having  learned  a  lesson  from  such  experience,  ally  herself 
with  Turkey?  Will  Rumania  unite  with  Greece,  and  what 
part  will  Servia,  the  trouble-maker,  play?  Real  and  durable 
may  be  two  different  things.  Through  Bulgaria's  hatred  for 
Greece  and  Servia,  which  was  intensified  by  the  second  Bal- 
kan war,  the  unquenchable  zeal  of  Russia  will  attempt  to  re- 
peat the  political  game,  notwithstanding  the  collapse  of  the 
Balkan  federation  established  under  her  protection.  The  con- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY         41 

ference  of  the  leading  Balkan  statesmen  who  met  "accident- 
ally" in  the  Russian  capital,  can  have  no  other  purpose  than 
that  of  making  the  most  of  Russian  influence,  in  order  to 
create  an  obstacle  to  Austrian  interests.  Then  an  opponent 
to  Germany's  ally  might  arise  in  the  Balkan  states,  which 
could  harass  her  when  she  was  endeavoring  on  the  one  hand 
to  protect  herself  against  a  Russian  attack  and  on  the  other 
to  hasten  to  the  assistance  of  Germany. 

There  is  no  doubt  that  the  Russian  attempts  at  expan- 
sion, as  they  conflict  more  and  more  with  the  interests  of  the 
great  European  powers,  will  meet  with  ever  increasing  ob- 
stacles, and  obstacles  more  difficult  to  overcome,  and  that 
thorough-going  concentration  against  these  well  organized 
governments  becomes  absolutely  necessary  for  Russia,  in  or- 
der to  counterbalance  them.  It  was  a  generally  accepted  idea 
that  the  severe  blows  which  the  Czar's  empire  suffered  from 
its  defeats  in  eastern  Asia,  from  the  revolution  which  fol- 
lowed, from  the  demoralization  of  the  officials,  civil  and 
military,  and,  finally,  from  the  various  crop  failures,  would 
prove  hindrances  to  the  internal  development  of  the  country. 
Thus  the  strides  which  Russia  has  made  in  every  respect  in 
the  last  few  years  are  astounding.  In  the  first  place,  there  is 
the  agrarian  organization,  which  purposes  to  put  an  end  to 
the  pauperization  of  the  peasants.  It  is  reported  that,  to- 
ward the  end  of  the  year  1912,  the  establishment  of  more 
than  a  million  independent,  separate  farms  has  been  com- 
pleted, through  which  the  peasants  are  enabled  to  work  their 
small  holdings  freely.  The  occupation  of  Siberia  is  carried 
on  with  such  zeal  that  from  1907  to  1912  no  fewer  than 
2,400,000  people  of  both  sexes  settled  there;  and  it  is  hoped 
within  a  few  years  to  bring  all  the  land  fit  for  cultivation  un- 
der the  plough.  This  occupation  of  Siberia,  especially,  is  of 
tremendous  military  significance,  since  by  this  means  the  pos- 
sibility arises  of  basing  the  defence  of  the  east  Asiatic  pos- 
sessions of  Russia  upon  the  strength  of  the  country  itself, 
and  not  of  being  obliged,  as  heretofore,  in  case  a  conflict 


42          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

should  break  out  with  Japan  or  with  China,  to  send  large 
masses  of  troops  from  the  west  of  the  empire.  The  seven 
army  corps  that  are  always  maintained  in  Siberia  can  already 
be  strengthened  by  a  reserve  army  from  among  the  inhabi- 
tants there  of  at  least  285,000  men. 

Just  as  the  development  of  agriculture  has  doubled  the 
export  trade  of  Russia  ($687,500,000)  between  1895  an<^ 
1911  and  has  raised  the  demand  for  agricultural  machinery 
to  the  value  of  $59,500,000,  so  its  industry  presents  the 
same  surprising  picture;  and,  in  spite  of  their  constantly  in- 
creasing number,  the  factories  cannot  yet  satisfy  the  demands 
of  the  population.  The  financial  conditions  of  the  country, 
also,  have  shaped  themselves  very  favorably  since  the  gold 
standard  was  adopted.  In  addition  to  this  the  national  bank 
has  been  reorganized.  In  spite  of  the  war  with  Japan  and 
its  huge  cost  ($900,000,000),  Russia  has  succeeded  in  pre- 
serving her  gold  reserve  so  well  that  in  October,  1905,  it 
amounted  to  about  $625,000,000.  It  was  still  at  about  the 
same  level  in  1908,  but  had  risen  to  $850,000,000  by  1912. 
However,  Russia  is  clever  enough  not  to  use  this  gold  re- 
serve for  the  present  considerable  expenditures  necessitated 
by  the  army  and  the  national  defense;  she  can  draw  on  her 
banker,  France,  to  better  advantage.  In  this  way  a  safe  finan- 
cial basis  for  the  anticipated  war  is  assured. 

That  precautions  for  such  a  war — and  preparations  on 
the  greatest  scale  imaginable — are  under  way  is  not  admitted 
by  the  usually  communicative  Russian  press.  This  is  a  very 
significant  sign,  especially  as  what  one  does  hear  is  calcu- 
lated to  excite  one's  closest  attention. 

In  all  former  wars  in  which  Russia  engaged  the  lack  of  a 
well  developed  network  of  communications — in  early  times 
of  roads,  in  the  last  century  of  railways — has  been  a  great 
obstacle  to  rapid  mobilization  and  to  the  provisioning  of  the 
armies.  The  greater  the  distances  which  divided  the  posi- 
tions of  the  troops  from  one  another  and  from  the  scene  of 
action  in  this  enormous  country,  covered  largely  with  exten- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          43 

sive  swamps  and  forests,  the  more  serious  became  this  state 
of  affairs. 

Therefore,  the  hurried  construction  of  the  Trans-Siberian 
Railway  had  to  precede  the  inevitable  collision  with  Japan 
following  upon  the  Russian  occupation  of  Manchuria;  and 
the  difficult  task  of  building  the  road  along  the  banks  of  Lake 
Baikal  had  to  be  continued  during  the  war.  Consequently 
a  large  part  of  the  loan  of  $500,000,000  which  had  been  ob- 
tained from  France  had  to  be  used  for  the  purpose  of  com- 
pleting with  the  greatest  possible  rapidity,  the  network  of 
railroad  lines  which  connect  the  interior  of  the  empire  with 
the  German  and  Austro-Hungarian  frontiers. 

The  construction  of  these  roads  requires  years  for  com- 
pletion, and  the  constant  demands  of  the  allies  must  be  satis- 
fied in  other  ways.  There  were  two  possibilities:  shortening 
the  distance  between  the  troops  and  the  scene  of  action,  that 
is,  the  routes  to  the  western  frontier;  and  increasing,  the 
standing  army,  so  that  it  would  have  no  need  of  very  large 
numbers  of  reservists,  who  would  have  to  be  transported  by 
rail,  to  fill  the  ranks.  Russia  has  resorted  to  both  of  these 
expedients.  Army  corps  were  sent  to  the  frontier  in  three 
directions;  to  the  east,  against  Japan  and  China,  where,  at 
the  same  time,  they  were  increased  from  five  to  seven ;  to  the 
southeast  in  the  Caucasus  against  Turkey,  and  to  the  west 
against  the  German  and  Austro-Hungarian  frontiers.  There, 
also,  two  new  army  corps  were  established,  and,  in  addition, 
no  fewer  than  nineteen  regiments  of  cavalry. 

In  order  to  comply  with  the  further  demand  of  France 
that  they  should  not  restrict  themselves  to  the  defensive,  but 
begin  the  war  by  taking  the  offensive,  the  Russians  were  ad- 
vised to  increase  the  regular  strength  of  the  divisions  that  go 
into  action  first,  so  that  the  attack  could  commence  without 
calling  out  the  reserves.  This  object  was  achieved  by  pro- 
longing the  time  of  military  service.  It  was  fixed  at  three 
years,  that  is,  from  the  first  of  January  to  the  end  of  the  third 
year  of  service.  However,  the  recruits  had  been  called  in  the 


44          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

preceding  autumn,  and  the  Minister  of  War  as  usual  exercised 
his  authority  to  order  their  dismissal  in  November  of  the 
third  year  of  service.  He  could,  it  is  true,  hold  the  reservists 
in  the  service  still  longer  by  imperial  permission,  if  there 
were  sufficient  reason  for  it.  This  power,  which  was  exer- 
cised last  year  during  the  strained  relations  with  Austria,  has 
now  been  sanctioned  by  a  law  prolonging  the  term  of  service 
up  to  the  first  of  April  of  the  fourth  year  of  service. 

What  is  the  result  of  this?  During  the  training  period, 
the  infantry  will  have  served  three  and  the  cavalry  four  years, 
the  entire  army  will  have  been  increased  by  one-fourth  of  its 
number  during  this  most  difficult  and  critical  period,  and  will 
be  as  ready  to  fight  then  as  after  the  end  of  the  term  of  ser- 
vice. The  difference  between  this  method  and  that  of  our 
army,  which  during  its  time  of  service  has  only  one  full  year 
of  active  training,  is  obvious.  Furthermore,  it  must  not  be 
overlooked  that  in  case  a  war  should  begin  in  the  spring  the 
reserves,  instead  of  being  dismissed,  can  be  retained,  in  order 
to  have  troops  practically  of  war  strength  at  hand  for  imme- 
diate service.  If,  then,  Russian  measures  do  not  go  so  far  as 
the  change  of  organization  in  France  does,  the  latter's  de- 
mands are  fully  complied  with  nevertheless.  The  peace-foot- 
ing of  the  Russian  army  is  estimated  as  follows : 

For  winter  of  1913-14,  total  1,840,000,  in  Europe  1,322,000 
For  summer  of  1914,  total  1,415,000,  in  Europe  1,017,000 
For  winter  of  1914-15,  total  1,860,000,  in  Europe  1,337,000 
For  summer  of  1915,  total  1,435,000,  in  Europe  1,032,000 
For  winter  of  1915-16,  total  1,900,000,  in  Europe  1,045,000 

In  the  winter  months  these  numbers  give  approximately 
the  entire  war  strength  of  the  army.  Assuming  that  Russia 
should,  on  the  whole,  agree  to  the  plan  of  campaign  that  the 
French  general  Cherfils  has  proposed,  then  fourteen  to  fifteen 
divisions  of  the  armies  of  Warsaw,  Vilna,  St.  Petersburg 
and  Kiev,  of  which  eight  are  only  between  50  and  60  odd 
miles  distant  from  our  borders,  would  be  combined  on  our 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          45 

eastern  frontier,  against  the  provinces  of  East  and  West 
Prussia. 

Not  only  is  Russia  preparing  herself  for  a  war  of  offence 
by  increasing  her  army  and  its  readiness  for  war,  but  she  is 
also  devoting  great  attention  to  strengthening  her  fortifica- 
tions. The  representative  of  the  Minister  of  War  was  able 
to  state  last  June  that,  in  1912,  not  only  were  the  existing 
forts  improved  and  strengthened,  but  that  new  fortresses  had 
been  constructed. 

The  Russians  organize  their  system  of  national  defence 
on  the  western  frontier  as  follows :  A  northern  seat  of  war  de- 
fended by  the  fortifications  of  Kovno  and  thefortifiedNiemen 
line;  a  southern  seat  of  war,  opposite  Galicia,  defended  by 
the  fortresses  at  Dubno,  Lutzk  and  Rovno,and  an  "advanced 
seat  of  war,"  the  center  of  which  is  in  the  triangular  fortifi- 
cations of  Warsaw,  Novo — Georgievsk  and  Zegrze,  the  right 
wing  of  which  is  indicated  by  the  fortified  line  of  Narev  and 
the  left  by  the  fortified  towns  of  Ivangorod  and  Brest-Li- 
tovsk.  Along  the  whole  circumference  of  this  position  of  de- 
fence the  work  is  proceeding  energetically ;  the  center  of  War- 
saw is  being  entirely  transformed,  Brest-Litovsk  has  been 
strengthened  to  a  fortress  of  the  first  magnitude,  and  the 
Narev-Niemen  line,  after  the  fashion  of  the  French  barrier 
fortresses  on  its  eastern  boundary,  has  been  made  into  an  im- 
pregnable obstacle  by  the  construction  of  strong  bases  of  sup- 
port. And  Russia  is  not  less  active  in  preparing  against  an 
attack  on  St.  Petersburg  from  the  sea — by  the  construction 
of  fortresses  even  stronger  than  thos'e  of  Kronstadt;  while 
she  strives  to  make  the  mouth  of  the  Gulf  of  Finland,  on  its 
northern  and  southern  banks,  secure  against  an  attack  from  a 
fleet,  by  the  new  forts,  Reval-Dago-Oesel  and  Sveaborg- 
Porkale. 

Moreover,  if  one  takes  into  consideration  that  the  sum  of 
$145,000  expended  in  1907  for  the  support  of  the  reservists 
and  the  militia,  who  were  called  in  for  practice,  increased  in 
1913  to  $5,587,500;  that  in  the  frontier  regions,  huge  sup- 


46          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

plies  of  grain,  arms,  automobile  trucks  and  other  accessories 
of  war,  are  being  accumulated;  that  Russia  is  making  the 
greatest  efforts  to  perfect  aviation  and  to  train  the  greatest 
possible  number  of  officers  as  aviators,  one  cannot  help  think- 
ing that  she  believes  she  can  yield  to  the  pressure  of  her  ally 
and  banker,  since  the  moment  is  favorable  for  a  combined  at- 
tack on  Germany  and  Austria-Hungary. 

Nor  has  Russia  failed  to  employ  a  means,  hitherto  un- 
tried, of  weakening  Germany's  ally  as  much  as  possible,  by 
sending  emissaries  into  these  very  frontier  regions,  who  have 
stimulated  emigration  to  such  an  extent  that  tens  of  thou- 
sands of  men  liable  to  military  service  have  left  Austria  and 
have  deprived  the  Austrian  army  of  irrecoverable  strength. 

The  best  standard  for  judgment  of  the  efforts  that  a  state 
makes  for  its  defence  is  provided  by  the  figures  of  the  budget 
— by  the  annual  appropriation.  And  Russia  has  increased  her 
appropriation  for  the  army  alone,  in  the  years  from  1909  to 
1914  by  $187,500,000,  that  is,  by  72  per  cent.;  and  as  com- 
pared with  the  amount  in  1913,  the  appropriation  has  in- 
creased in  1914  by  $136,500,000,  or  43.5  per  cent.  The 
same  conditions  prevail  with  regard  to  the  fleet:  Of  the  new 
vessels  for  the  Baltic  fleet,  four  battleships  are  ready,  and 
four  of  23,370  tons  are  under  construction ;  six  armored  cruis- 
ers are  ready,  and  four  of  32,500  tons  are  under  construc- 
tion ;  four  protected  cruisers  are  ready,  and  six  are  under  con- 
struction; 58  torpedo  boats  are  ready,  and  36  are  under 
construction;  and  13  submarines  are  ready  or  under  construc- 
tion. These  tremendous  exertions  to  create  rapidly  a  new 
fleet  on  the  Baltic  necessitated  an  increase  in  the  state  ap- 
propriation of  $78,000,000  from  1909  to  1913,  that  is, 
154  per  cent.  At  the  same  time  the  appropriations  for  the 
navy  increased  50  per  cent,  in  France,  29.6  per  cent,  in  Eng- 
land, and  only  13.8  per  cent,  in  Germany.  Judge  by  this  how 
unfounded  are  England's  reproaches  to  Germany,  and  to 
Germany  alone,  that  she  was  strengthening  her  naval  power 
inordinately.  Why  does  she  not  reproach  her  allies,  France 
and  Russia? 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          47 


III.     FRANCE 

It  is  noteworthy  that  Homer  Lea  does  not  mention  France 
at  all  in  his  book,  "The  Day  of  the  Saxon."  This  should  be 
mortifying  to  her,  since  it  ignores  her  in  the  rivalry  with  Eng- 
land. She  lost  her  importance  on  sea  for  the  Anglo-Saxons 
when  England  succeeded  in  defeating  her  fleet  in  the  i8th 
century  and  in  tearing  from  her  her  great  and  prosperous 
colonial  possessions.  That  France  has  meanwhile  been  able 
to  win  new  and  extensive  possessions  in  other  portions  of  the 
world  does  not  seem  to  affect  Great  Britain,  since  she  has 
been  able  to  preserve  for  herself  a  certain  supremacy.  Under 
pressure  from  England,  at  the  moment  in  which  she  believed 
herself  already  to  have  made  the  connection  with  her  eastern 
territory,  France  was  obliged  to  relinquish  her  rights  in 
Egypt  and  with  them  the  idea  of  gaining  a  colony  straight 
across  Africa  from  Senegambia  to  the  Red  Sea  (Abyssinia). 
This  was  the  only  case  in  which  her  plans  for  expansion 
crossed  those  of  the  British  Empire,  and  the  latter  did  not 
hesitate  to  interfere  immediately  with  brute  force. 

Although  the  English  treatment  of  France  in  1898  was 
regarded  by  the  latter  as  deeply  humiliating,  this  feeling 
rapidly  vanished  and,  when  England  came  to  the  aid  of  her 
former  opponent  in  the  Moroccan  question,  gave  way  to  the 
policy  of  revenge  against  Germany,  which  had  been  cherished 
since  1870.  What  is  the  basis  of  France's  hatred  of  Ger- 
many, which  causes  her  constantly  to  plan  revenge  and  when- 
ever there  is  any  chance  of  satisfying  it,  to  relegate  all  other 
questions  to  the  background?  The  French  attempt  to  trace 
its  course  to  the  ancient  struggle  between  the  Gauls  and  the 
Germans  for  the  possession  of  the  blessed  banks  of  the  Rhine. 
They  have  set  up  a  peculiar  conception  of  historical  events  in 
order  to  justify  Louis  XIV's  seizure  of  Alsace  and  Lorraine 
from  Germany,  and  have  persisted  in  it  with  such  consistency 


48          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

in  the  education  of  their  youth,  that  not  only  the  French,  but 
also  the  inhabitants  of  those  provinces  under  French  influence, 
are  thoroughly  imbued  with  this  idea.  After  the  division  of 
the  empire  by  Charlemagne — whom  they  consider  a  French 
monarch — these  provinces  were  the  playthings  of  princes  and 
nations  so  that  they  had  no  peace  and  no  prosperity  until  King 
Louis  XIV  took  pity  on  them  and  incorporated  them  into 
his  kingdom,  where  they  could  enjoy  the  blessings  of  peace 
and  culture.  Even  if  this  theory  were  correct — and  it  con- 
tradicts the  facts  of  history  on  every  point — it  cannot  be 
denied  that  the  population  of  Alsace-Lorraine  comes  of  pure 
Teutonic,  and  not  Gallic,  stock,  and  is  still  unchanged.  Be- 
sides, the  Alsatians  and  Lotharingians  were  never  recognized 
as  equals  by  the  French;  on  the  contrary  they  were  always 
subordinated,  mocked  and  scorned,  as  coming  from  alien 
stock. 

But  the  defeats  of  1870-71,  which  terminated  in  the  re- 
union of  Alsace-Lorraine  with  Germany,  wounded  the  deep- 
est feeling  of  the  French  nation — her  vanity — and  that  is  the 
root  of  her  ineffaceable  hatred.  France  could  forget  that 
England  destroyed  her  naval  power,  that  she  lost  her 
colonies,  so  long  as  she  preserved  her  supremacy  on  land. 
Created  by  Louis  XIV,  it  was  increased  on  the  continent  to 
the  utmost  bounds  of  possibility  by  Napoleon ;  and  since  that 
time  the  "grande  nation"  has  considered  herself  the  bearer 
of  culture,  the  ruling  power  in  Europe.  When  relying  on 
this  power  under  Napoleon  III,  French  arrogance  met  with 
the  unexpected  opposition  of  Germany,  when  the  latter  coun- 
try, which  had  been  despised,  because  of  its  system  of  small 
states  and  dissension,  which  had  been  scornfully  charged  with 
barbarity  and  lack  of  culture,  rose  in  close  union  and  won  su- 
premacy, not  only  on  the  field  of  battle,  but  also  in  industry 
and  commerce,  in  art  and  science  with  unexpected  power  and 
ability,  then  the  French  nation,  forced  from  its  throne  and 
wounded  to  the  utmost  in  its  vanity,  became  cognizant  of  its 
weaknesses.  Hmc  illae  lacrimae! 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY         49 

Because  of  the  military  prowess  of  its  inhabitants,  who, 
as  becomes  descendants  of  ancient  Teutonic  races,  have  pre- 
served warlike  inclinations  and  virtues  and  have  provided  the 
French  army  with  many  of  its  best  soldiers  and  most  famous 
generals,  France's  fanatical  desire  to  win  back  Alsace-Lor- 
raine has  a  certain  significance.  Considering  the  decrease  of 
the  population  in  France,  the  two  million  inhabitants  of  Al- 
sace-Lorraine are  a  valuable  addition,  and,  if  admission  to 
the  French  army  were  open  to  the  Alsatians  and  Lotharin- 
gians,  the  lack  of  officers  would  to  a  certain  extent  be  sup- 
plied. 

Notwithstanding  an  occasional  diminution  of  their  hostile 
attitude — for  this  does  not  prevail  over  the  whole  of  France, 
nor  in  an  equal  degree  in  the  entire  population — the  French 
government,  whatever  its  sentiments,  has  always  striven  to 
perfect  and  complete  the  army  and  the  fortifications.  Two 
objects  governed  it;  a  strong  protection  of  the  frontier,  ex- 
posed since  the  loss  of  the  Rhine  boundary,  and  a  strength  in 
its  own  troops  equal,  as  far  as  possible,  to  that  of -the  German 
army. 

On  the  157  miles  of  German  frontier  along  the  Meuse 
and  Moselle  Rivers,  a  chain  of  four  strong  fortresses  was 
created,  which  serve  to  protect  two  lines  of  barrier  fortresses 
— Verdun-Toul  and  Epinal-Belfort.  These  serve  as  bases  of 
support  for  the  wings  and  flank  the  gaps — Verdun-Longwy 
(32  miles)  and  Toul-Epinal  (44  miles).  They  were  pri- 
marily intended  to  protect  the  advance  of  the  army  against 
the  more  rapidly  mobilized  German  forces,  especially  as  the 
position,  Verdun-Toul,  by  reason  of  its  situation  on  the  edge 
of  the  Cote  de  Meuse,  which  slopes  precipitously  down  to 
the  plain  below,  is  extraordinarily  favorable  for  an  army  of 
defence  and  would  have  to  be  cut  through  by  us.  When 
Italy  joined  the  German  alliance  with  Austria-Hungary,  a 
more  adequate  protection  of  the  frontier  of  the  Alps  towards 
Italy  had  to  be  considered;  and  thus  an  extraordinarily  strong 
system  of  fortifications,  consisting  of  a  blockade  of  the  passes, 


50          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

and  strong  bases  of  support  further  back,  which  not  only 
intercepts  and  defends  all  the  roads  leading  over  the  moun- 
tains, but  many  byways  as  well,  was  established  here,  too. 
Finally,  the  French  had  to  provide  against  the  possibility  that 
German  troops,  disregarding  neutrality  treaties,  would  force 
their  way  into  Belgium  or  march  through  Switzerland,  so 
that  the  efficiency  of  the  old  fortifications  on  these  frontiers, 
too,  had  to  be  examined  and  improved,  as  needed.  Thus 
France  has  received  a  coat  of  mail,  as  it  were,  of  fortifica- 
tions stretching  along  the  whole  eastern  frontier,  a  distance 
of  about  625  miles,  which  would  call  a  halt  to  the  unexpected 
invasion  of  a  hostile  army.  It  is  impossible  to  ignore  these 
fortresses  as  in  1870  or  to  regard  them  lightly. 

The  construction  of  these  fortresses  and  the  constantly 
required  improvements  and  modernization  of  old  defenses 
could  be  easily  accomplished  by  the  possession  of  the  neces- 
sary funds,  which  were  always  easily  obtainable.  Much  more 
difficult  was  the  maintenance  of  the  army  on  the  same  level 
with  that  of  the  German  Empire,  for  here  the  sacrifice  of 
money,  however  much,  was  of  no  avail.  Only  large  masses 
of  men  counted,  and  France  did  not  have  the  same  supply  of 
men  as  of  money.  Even  in  the  seventies  the  population  of 
France  was  declining — a  condition  directly  opposite  to  that 
in  Germany.  With  about  the  same  amount  of  territory, 
France  had,  in  1875  f°r  example,  only  36,900,000  inhabi- 
tants, while  Germany  had  42,700,000.  Since  that  time  the 
population  of  France  has  increased  only  to  39,700,000,  or 
7.6  per  cent.,  while  in  Germany  it  has  risen  to  67,500,000, 
that  is  58  per  cent.  The  result  was  that  France  could  not 
keep  pace  with  Germany  as  regards  the  annual  number  of 
her  recruits,  even  if  she  reduced  her  physical  standard.  She 
accordingly  had  to  reduce  the  normal  strength  of  the  army 
units,  primarily  that  of  the  companies,  in  order  to  retain  the 
same  number  of  larger  commands,  and  finally  was  compelled 
to  include  as  soldiers  those  who  did  not  possess  the  physical 
requirements,  by  withdrawing  the  numerous  officers'  order- 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          51 

lies  and  men  employed  in  similar  capacities,  and  replacing 
them  by  others  still  less  fit. 

The  result  of  the  smaller  number  of  recruits  was  a  smaller 
supply  of  drilled  troops  and  of  reserves  for  mobilization 
than  in  the  case  of  the  German  army.  If  compulsory  service 
had  been  as  strict  in  Germany  as  in  France,  there  would  soon 
have  been  a  far  greater  number  of  drilled  soldiers  for  the 
German  army  than  for  the  French.  But  the  increase  in  the 
number  liable  to  service,  and,  consequently,  of  recruits,  in 
Germany,  did  not  keep  pace  with  the  increase  of  the 
population,  so  that  the  balance  between  France  and  Ger- 
many was  not  appreciably  disturbed.  This  would  en- 
able France,  at  least  for  the  time  being,  to  preserve 
a  superiority,  if  she  succeeded  in  augmenting  her  force 
in  the  standing  army  over  that  at  the  disposal  of  her 
eastern  neighbor.  In  case  of  war  the  number  of  those 
liable  to  service,  which  depends  on  the  number  of  recruits, 
could  naturally  not  be  increased  by  this  means,  and  therefore, 
the  superior  number  of  possible  soldiers  at  the  disposal  of 
Germany  is  indisputable.  The  prolonging  of»the  term  of  ser- 
vice from  two  to  three  years,  however,  afforded  a  greater  in- 
crease of  the  standing  army,  amounting  to  200,000  men,  and 
had  the  additional  advantage  of  providing  a  much  more 
thorough  training,  not  only  for  the  troops  in  general,  but  also 
for  the  candidates  for  the  position  of  reserve  officers  than  was 
possible  in  Germany. 

After  the  introduction  of  the  three-year  term  of  active 
service,  the  French  standing  army  attained  a  strength  of  768, 
300  men,  composed  of  petty  officers  and  privates  (including 
the  80,000  troops  of  reserves,  the  police  force  of  24,000 
men  and  the  31,300  colonial  troops),  while  our  army  num- 
bered only  619,000.  And  even  with  our  great  augmenta- 
tion, through  which  we  again  approached  general  conscrip- 
tion, we  have  not  quite  caught  up  with  the  French,  as  we 
have  only  about  751,000  men  under  the  colors. 

The  three-year  term  of  service  was  accomplished  in  a 


52          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

strange  manner,  not  without  significance  for  the  coming  years. 
As  the  men  born  in  1890,  serving  their  second  year,  objected 
to  remaining  another  year,  and  gave  vent  to  their  feelings  by 
gross  excesses  and  mutiny,  it  was  decided  to  dismiss  them  in 
the  fall  of  1913  and  to  replace  them  simultaneously  by  two 
other  series  of  recruits,  namely,  those  born  in  1892  and  1893. 
Consequently,  two  series  of  recruits  have  to  be  trained  at  the 
same  time,  one  of  which  has  already  served  one  year  of  its 
term,  a  circumstance  which  would  make  it  almost  impossible 
for  the  French  army  to  enter  into  war  at  present.  However, 
since,  in  order  legally  to  justify  the  premature  call  to  service 
of  the  series  of  1893,  tne  beginning  of  the  term  of  service 
was  shifted  back  a  year,  from  twenty-one  to  twenty;  in  the 
fall  of  1914,  the  series  of  1894  will  be  obliged  to  serve.  But, 
as  the  series  of  1891  which  is  serving  its  second  year  is  com- 
pelled to  remain  for  three  years,  it  can  still  be  under  arms 
during  the  year  of  1915.  The  consequence  will  be  that  there 
will  be,  not  only  three,  but  four  series  next  year  in  the  stand- 
ing army,  that  is,  a  greater  strength  than  is  necessary  for  the 
war  basis.  A  mobilization,  according  to  this,  could  be  ac- 
complished next  year  with  all  the  more  ease  and  rapidity,  as 
not  only  have  all  the  units  of  military  force  their  full  war 
strength  already,  but  they  could  even  furnish  a  consider- 
able portion  of  their  troops  as  a  nucleus  for  the  required 
reserves. 

France  will  have  another  opportunity  for  a  similar  pro- 
ceeding in  1916,  since  only  in  the  fall  of  that  year  will  the  two 
series  of  1913  receive  their  dismissal.  If,  by  that  time,  she 
has  not  attained  the  purpose  for  which  she  keeps  this  exceed- 
ingly strong  armament,  if  she  has  not  been  able  to  persuade 
Russia  and  England  to  attack  Germany,  then  she  will  prob- 
ably have  to  renounce  the  idea  of  a  war  of  revenge,  if  she 
does  not  wish  to  face  economic  ruin.  The  state  of  affairs 
that  France  has  created  by  the  exceptional  three  years'  term 
of  service  is  nothing  less  than  a  continual  preparation  for  war. 
It  may  be  possible  for  a  rich  country  to  make  the  pecuniary 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY         53 

sacrifices  hereby  occasioned.  The  personal  sacrifices,  how- 
ever, would  be  too  great,  if  one  considers  that,  not  only  is  the 
peasant  torn  for  so  long  a  time  from  his  plough,  the  crafts- 
man from  his  trade,  but  also  that  all  the  young  men  whose 
scientific  and  artistic  training  is  of  vital  importance  to  the 
state,  are  obliged  to  interrupt  their  studies  for  three  years 
and  thus  undoubtedly  will  have  to  begin  all  over  again.  This 
youthful  vigor,  uselessly  sacrificed  to  the  "revenge"  feeling 
would  take  bitter  retaliation  should  it  not  be  utilized  for  this 
purpose. 

For  all  these  reasons  the  consequence  of  France's  military 
measures  is  that  she  must  press  on  to  the  beginning  of  the 
war  against  Germany  in  1915  or  1916  under  any  circum- 
stances. 

But  it  is  not  enough  for  her  to  have  more  than  two  per 
cent,  of  the  whole  population  (including  the  officers)  in  the 
standing  army.  In  addition,  France  is  seeking  to  draw  rein- 
forcements from  her  colonies,  in  order  to  attain  numerical 
superiority  without  the  assistance  of  other  states.  In  1870, 
the  most  "civilized"  nation  of  the  world  opposed  us  with  all 
sorts  of  brutally  savage  African  tribes.  In  this  direction  she 
can  do  still  more.  From  Algeria,  Senegambia  and  the  West- 
ern Sudan  especially,  considerable  support  can  be  derived 
from  a  population  which  is  estimated  at  30,000,000,  and  the 
government  has  an  eye  to  this  purpose.  A  German  traveler, 
who  is  well  acquainted  with  conditions  in  the  Sudan,  confirms 
this  with  these  words:  "Ideas  neither  of  commercial  advan- 
tage nor  of  colonization  are  sufficiently  encouraged.  On  the 
contrary,  France's  policy  is  to  provide  for  the  subsistence  of 
the  colony  by  means  of  the  strength,  intelligence  and  money 
of  the  colored  races,  and  to  produce  French  citizens  of  the 
black  race,  by  the  thousands,  hundreds  of  thousands  and  mil- 
lions, and  naturally  all  these  millions  are  to  become  good, 
enthusiastic  and  patriotic  French  soldiers." 

There  are  already  28  battalions  of  so-called  Senegal 
sharpshooters,  and  every  year  this  organized  plan  progresses. 


54          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

Naturally,  these  black  troops  cannot  simply  be  transplanted 
to  the  European  climate;  yet  the  attempt  to  utilize  them  on 
the  north  coast  of  Africa  has  apparently  had  good  results,  so 
that  there  can  be  no  hesitation  in  transporting  the  troops  of 
European  or  Arabian  blood,  that  are  stationed  in  Africa, 
across  to  the  seat  of  war,  and  in  replacing  them  by  Senegal 
sharpshooters.  Perhaps  it  will  be  possible  to  bring  over  the 
blacks  that  have  become  acclimated  to  the  north  coast  of  Af- 
rica. At  all  events,  there  will  be  a  considerable  force  at  hand 
in  the  Sudan  itself  which  can  proceed  along  the  roads  of  this 
region,  and  from  Equatorial  Africa  against  our  African  colo- 
nies and  secure  these  valuable  possessions.  Already  twenty 
thousand  men  are  in  readiness  for  such  a  task.  It  is  evident 
from  the  continual  increase  of  the  Algerian  regiments  of 
sharpshooters,  with  what  zeal  preparations  for  war  are  pro- 
ceeding in  Algiers,  for  they  are  to  be  increased  to  the  num- 
ber of  48,  by  the  yearly  creation  of  five  new  battalions.  They 
have  already  reached  the  number  of  39. 

But  France  has  sought  reinforcements  in  regions  other 
than  her  African  colonies,  in  order  to  outstrip  Germany's  mili- 
tary strength,  despite  her  lack  of  men.  Natives  of  the  Antilles 
were  brought  over,  who,  as  a  matter  of  fact,  succumbed  to 
the  climate.  Consequently,  they  were  transferred  to  Algeria, 
but  even  there  they  proved  unequal  to  the  climate.  After 
such  attempts,  it  should  not  surprise  us  if  the  German  troops 
should  encounter  natives  of  Madagascar,  Annam  and  Cam- 
bodia in  the  next  war. 

In  the  year  1912  the  number  of  available  trained  troops 
in  France  was  estimated  at  from  four  and  a  half  to  four  and 
three-quarter  millions,  which  would  be  from  1 1.3  per  cent,  to 
1 2  per  cent,  of  the  whole  population.  As  one  can  hardly  count 
on  more  than  from  17  to  18  per  cent,  of  men  liable  to  ser- 
vice, after  the  mobilization  of  such  a  number,  only  children, 
old  men  and  weaklings  would  remain  in  the  country,  to  fulfill 
the  duties  of  citizenship.  That  would  mean  that  all  civil 
callings  would  be  brought  to  a  standstill  in  order  to  carry  on 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          55 

the  war  with  such  a  large  army.  But  as  this  is  absolutely 
impossible,  even  in  the  interest  of  the  army,  it  will  be  well 
not  to  count  on  such  an  enormous  number.  Russia  with  her 
160,000,000  inhabitants  can  exact  such  a  sacrifice  of  men, 
but  not  France. 

However,  the  French  army — or  rather  armies — will  ne- 
cessitate such  great  areas  for  operation,  if  the  number  of  the 
army  corps  is  doubled  by  the  reserves,  even  without  the  divi- 
sions of  the  territorial  army  and  its  reserves,  that  the  Ger- 
man-French frontier  is  much  too  short  to  admit  of  a  simul- 
taneous passage.  Consequently,  only  one  division  of  the 
forces  could  be  utilized  at  a  time,  or  else  the  means  of  egress 
would  have  to  be  increased  and  widened.  This  is  where  Bel- 
gium will  play  a  part,  for  her  sympathy  with  France  is  so 
well  known  that  opposition,  such  as  is  the  duty  of  a  neutral 
state  towards  an  encroachment  on  its  territory,  can  hardly  be 
expected  from  this  quarter.  It  is  true  that  Belgium  would  be 
playing  a  dangerous  game,  if  she  yielded  to  France,  for, 
whatever  the  outcome,  her  independence  would  be  a  thing 
of  the  past.  But  England,  too,  as  we  saw,  seems  to  count 
upon  disembarking  her  land  forces  in  Antwerp ;  and  on  neu- 
tral ground  she  would  have  to  join  forces  with  her  ally  France 
—of  course,  with  the  agreement  to  protect  Belgium  against 
* 'plunder-loving  Germany,"  even  if  German  troops  had  not 
yet  set  foot  on  neutral  ground. 

Homer  Lea  gives  us  ideas  on  neutrality  that  are  charac- 
teristic of  the  Anglo-Saxons.    He  thinks  that  the  occupation 
of  a  neutral  country — for  example,  Holland  or  Belgium— 
before  a  war  with  Germany  might  call  forth  violent  opposi- 
tion from  England. 

"This  is  false,"  he  remarks,  ufor  the  British  Empire  is 
not  moved  by  the  sanctity  of  neutrality.  It  is  only  a  means 
of  evading  responsibility  and  shifting  it  upon  those  nations 
which  delude  themselves  with  the  belief  that  declarations  of 
neutrality  are  inviolable;  whereas,  no  nation  has  violated  neu- 
tral territory  and  denied  the  obligation  of  observing  neutral- 


56         GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

ity  more  frequently  than  the  British.  The  occupation  by  the 
Anglo-Saxons  of  these  frontiers  would  be  regarded  as  a  ter- 
ritorial, and  not  a  moral,  violation  of  the  neutrality  of  the 
states  concerned.  Neutrality  of  states  under  the  conditions 
just  mentioned  has  never  had  heretofore,  nor  will  ever  have 
in  future,  any  place  among  the  nations  in  time  of  war.  Such 
a  neutrality  is  a  modern  illusion.  It  means  downright  aber- 
ration." (pp.  265-266.) 

I  do  not  believe  that  the  opposition  of  England  to  such  a 
violation  of  neutrality  would  be  aroused  as  Homer  Lea  seems 
to  expect,  rather  do  I  think  that  his  is  the  generally  accepted 
theory  of  the  country. 

France  has  experienced  various  disappointments  in  the 
course  of  the  last  ten  years,  during  which  she  has  devoted 
herself  exclusively  to  preparations  for  the  war  with  Germany. 
We  surpassed  her  in  the  construction  of  cannon;  her  much 
praised  invention  of  smokeless  powder  was  a  fiasco.  When 
the  "Lebaudy"  was  proudly  extolled  as  the  only  airship  in 
the  world,  no  fewer  than  three  dirigibles  appeared  in  Ger- 
many at  the  same  time  and  proved  themselves  capable  of 
greater  speed  than  the  French  airships.  When  the  French 
enthusiastically  applied  themselves  to  the  construction  and 
utilization  of  these  flying  machines,  their  triumph  was  brief, 
as  the  German  apparatuses  and  airmen  were  able  to  accom- 
plish equally  as  much  in  the  course  of  a  few  years.  The  rea- 
son for  all  this  lies  in  the  native  characteristics  of  the  French; 
they  are  intelligent,  inventive,  courageous  and  seize  every 
new  idea  with  great  dexterity  and  zeal.  They  are  not  care- 
ful workers,  however,  and  lack  the  infinite  patience  of  the 
German,  who,  unlike  the  Frenchman,  is  not  satisfied  with 
temporary  success  and  then  turns  to  new  fields,  but  is  never 
content  with  what  he  has  achieved,  and  is  constantly  seeking 
to  improve  and  to  perfect  it. 

The  French  are  able  to  utilize  still  another  weapon  with 
skill  and  good  fortune :  the  undermining  of  our  boundary 
lands,  the  provinces  of  Alsace  and  Lorraine.  I  must  refer 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          57 

to  this,  because  it  will  play  a  portentous  part  in  the  coming 
struggle,  at  least  in  the  first  stages,  but  will  not  be  a  blessing 
for  the  population  if  it  cannot  successfully  resist. 


IV.     CONCLUSION 

Since  the  downfall  of  the  Roman  Empire  the  Teutonic 
and  Latin  races  of  Europe  have  considered  themselves  right- 
ly as  the  standard-bearers  of  civilization,  and  hence  have  re- 
garded themselves  as  chosen  to  impress  it  upon  the  other  por- 
tions of  the  earth  and  to  exercise  in  most  cases  political,  as 
well  as  intellectual,  power.  However,  it  has  always  been 
true  in  the  history  of  the  development  of  nations,  that  the 
conquered  nation  in  time  having  acquired  all  the  customs  and 
habits  of  the  conquerors,  endeavors,  finally,  to  break  its 
fetters,  be  they  of  an  intellectual  or  of  a  political  nature. 
And  so  for  the  Great  European  Powers  there  is  the  unmis- 
takable danger  that  in  time  they  may  be  forced  from  their 
commanding  position.  This  could  not  be  long  delayed, 
should  they  be  obliged  single  handed  to  stem  the  tide  of  the 
newly  made  world  powers.  We  have  the  beginning  of  this 
new  era  in  Russia's  struggle  with  Japan;  for  even  if  Russia 
cannot  be  regarded  as  a  conspicuous  member  of  the  European 
Powers,  so  far  as  its  civilization  is  concerned,  still,  as  com- 
pared with  Japan,  she  represents  the  European  type  of  it. 
And  there,  where  she  suffered  .defeat  in  the  region  of  the  Pa- 
cific Ocean,  the  future  struggles  for  world  supremacy  between 
the  European,  Asiatic  and  American  nations  will  be  decided. 
Years  ago  Emperor  William  II  uttered  the  prophetic  warn- 
ing: "Ye  peoples  of  Europe,  guard  your  most  sacred  pos- 
sessions." What  he  meant  was  very  evident.  No  one  can 
help  realizing  that  there  would  be  reason  enough  in  a  Euro- 
pean combination  for  the  purpose  of  warding  off  such  dan- 
ger. What  would  it  require,  but  a  few  unimportant  conces- 
sions, a  quiet  consideration  of  the  vital  needs  of  each  indus- 


58          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

try,  increased  territorial  power,  and  the  suppression  of  all 
feeling  of  revenge  or  jealousy  among  neighboring  states? 
Are  the  interests  of  each  really  so  directly  opposed,  that  a 
little  could  not  be  sacrificed  to  guard  against  a  greater  catas- 
trophe? If  the  Powers  at  the  Hague  Peace  Conference  had 
in  mind  that  they  would  unite  for  common  defence  and  cher- 
ished the  hope  of  attaining  such  a  union,  then  it  would  be  of 
invaluable  significance  to  Europe.  But  how  different  are  the 
actual  conditions.  Divided  into  two  great  camps,  the  six 
Great  Powers  stand  confronting  one  another,  groaning  under 
the  burden  of  their  heavy  armament.  They  talk  of  peace 
and  friendship,  and  all  the  time  one  of  them  is  ready  to  strike, 
while  the  other,  with  sword  unsheathed,  must  be  prepared  at 
a  moment's  notice  to  join  in  the  struggle,  in  which  Europe  will 
tear  itself  to  pieces  and  render  itself  for  an  indefinite  period, 
unable  to  meet  those  dangers  threatening  it  from  without,  in 
every  sphere,  economic,  political  and  military. 

Ever  since  King  Edward  of  England,  laboring  under  the 
delusion  that  the  German  Empire's  growing  land  and  naval 
power  was  becoming  dangerous  to  Britain's  position  of  world 
supremacy,  formed  an  alliance  against  us  with  all  England's 
former  opponents  and  spared  no  pains  to  isolate  us  as  much 
as  possible  and  to  surround  us  with  hostile  arms,  Europe  has 
been  living  in  a  state  of  constant  preparation  for  a  fearful, 
decisive  struggle.  That  this  contest  has  not  long  since  been 
waged,  that  even  so  favorable  an  opportunity  as  the  war  torch 
in  the  Balkans  did  not  set  the  spark  to  the  powder,  that  it 
was  in  fact  England,  who  always  restrained  her  eager  allies — 
that,  in  my  opinion,  is  due  chiefly  to  England's  calculating 
business  sense.  England  would  not  be  much  concerned, 
should  the  continental  powers  come  to  blows  and  inflict  seri- 
ous wounds  on  one  another;  but  they  then  would  be  obliged 
to  share  the  costs.  Whoever  the  victor  in  this  struggle,  what 
benefit  would  accrue  to  him?  Devastated  lands  and  empty 
coffers.  What  defeated  country  could  pay  the  war  indem- 
nity? What  the  benefits  of  such  a  war  would  be  it  is  difficult 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          59 

to  conjecture.  Inasmuch  as  Great  Britain  may  be  forced  to 
take  active  part  therein,  since  it  is  she  who  has  the  greatest 
interest  in  the  destruction  of  the  German  fleet,  inasmuch  as 
she  cannot  hope  to  leave  the  field  of  battle  without  material 
losses,  nor  secure  any  great  advantage  from  the  struggle,  she 
recoils  from  the  moment  in  which  she  must  take  the  decisive 
step. 

However,  the  spirits  that  you  summoned  to  aid,  you  can- 
not lightly  cast  aside — the  spirit  of  revenge  which  was  kin- 
dled in  France,  the  burning  hatred  of  Russia  for  Austria-Hun- 
gary, has  impelled  both  countries  to  an  increase  of  their  mili- 
tary preparations,  which  can  only  be  maintained  for  a  short 
time.  As  a  matter  of  fact,  this  preparation  does  not  differ 
from  a  readiness  for  war,  and  in  the  spring  of  1915,  it  will 
be  so  completely  perfected  that  one  must  be  prepared  at  any 
moment,  for  the  appearance  of  such  mighty  armies  as  Europe 
has  never  yet  seen.  And  that  will  be  the  hour  of  destiny  for 
Germany  and  her  allies;  then  we  shall  have  to  strike  harder 
blows  than  ever  before,  but  then,  too,  the  enthusiasm,  the 
devotion,  the  courage  of  sacrifice  will  be  commensurate.  For 
we  will  be  fighting  for  the  right.  Never  will  a  people  have 
been  attacked  with  greater  injustice  than  we  in  this  coming 
war;  never  will  a  nation  have  borne  with  so  much  patience 
and  meekness  such  agonizing  jealousies  and  affronts;  never 
has  a  nation  possessed  a  greater  ruler  and  firmer  rock  of  peace 
than  Emperor  William. 

Just  as  the  government  responded  to  the  threatening 
measures  of  France  in  the  re-establishment  last  year  of  the 
three-year  term  of  service  with  a  mighty  increase  of  our  mil- 
itary force,  just  as  the  German  people  accepted,  without  mur- 
mur, nay  even  with  a  sentiment  of  pride  and  devotion  to  the 
Fatherland,  the  pecuniary  sacrifices  involved,  so — and  of  this 
we  can  be  certain — every  weapon  will  be  ready  promptly,  and 
not  only  the  military  force,  but  the  financial  and  industrial 
bases  as  well  will  be  sound.  For  a  war  of  such  dimensions 
which  demands  the  whole  national  strength  of  each  country 


60          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

will  not  be  fought  with  the  weapons  of  warfare  alone,  but 
will  require  the  whole  economic  and  financial  strength  in- 
volved to  cope  with  such  forces. 

It  must  not  be  imagined  that  five  or  six  million  soldiers 
can  suddenly  overrun  our  territory  from  all  sides  and  crush 
our  army.  At  the  beginning,  only  the  active  army,  exclusive 
of  the  troops  retained  for  garrisoning  the  fortresses  and  other 
purposes,  will  have  to  be  reckoned  with,  for  the  mobilizing 
of  the  reserve  forces  demands  some  time.  Secondly,  large 
masses  of  troops  always  necessitate  enormous  moving  space, 
so  that  in  a  given  area  only  an  army  of  approximately  small 
strength  can  be  utilized.  In  these  respects  our  modern  army 
of  millions  differs  greatly  from  the  smaller  armies  which  were 
at  the  disposal  of  Frederick  the  Great  and  even  of  Napoleon. 
Those  masters  of  strategy  could  always  follow  the  course  of 
battle  from  a  point  of  vantage  and  intervene  accordingly.  In 
the  battles  of  Metz  and  Sedan  this  was  quite  impossible, 
since  the  still  comparatively  small  masses  of  the  army  had  to 
spread  over  many  miles  in  order  to  take  part  in  the  battle. 
Conceive  of  the  dimensions  of  the  battles  in  Manchuria !  The 
mere  weight  of  numbers  will  accomplish  nothing  in  the  com- 
ing war;  it  will  not  be  necessary  for  one  man  to  fight  five  or 
six;  the  opposing  forces  will  be  nearly  equal.  Therefore,  in 
the  future,  as  in  the  past,  the  moral  qualities,  coupled  with 
the  physical  strength,  training  and  marksmanship  of  each 
individual  soldier,  and  the  judgment  of  the  commanders  as 
to  the  distribution  and  proper  placing  of  troops,  will  deter- 
mine the  outcome. 

For  the  French  army,  the  immoderate — in  proportion  to 
the  strength  of  the  country — increase  of  the  number  of  troops 
will  be  of  little  benefit,  inasmuch  as  this  striving  for  increased 
enlistment  has  brought  forward,  not  only  those  fit  for  war, 
but  also  many  weaklings,  who  might  easily  become  a  burden. 
If  one  observes  how  little  able  the  French  soldiers  are  to  re- 
sist the  diseases  that  threaten  them,  one  will  see  that  at  the 
present  moment  not  less  than  36  per  cent,  of  those  in  active 


GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY          61 

service  have  been  obliged  to  withdraw  from  it,  because  of 
sickness,  weakness  or  death.  One  must  not  forget  that  men 
of  this  mold  will  succumb  in  many  cases  to  the  hardships  of 
long  marches,  insufficient  food,  and  constant  nervous  strain. 
It  cannot  be  denied  that  in  the  French  army,  as  in  the  Rus- 
sian, the  longer  term  of  service  can  promote  the  attainment  of 
a  higher  degree  of  efficiency,  under  appropriate  guidance, 
than  is  possible  in  the  case  of  the  two-year  term  of  service. 
However,  most  of  all,  this  necessitates  conscientious  and  self- 
sacrificing  teachers,  that  is,  a  corps  of  officers  and  drill  ser- 
geants of  superior  quality.  These  might  be  hard  to  find  in 
the  Russian  army,  to  judge  from  the  outcome  of  the  war  with 
Japan,  and,  in  France,  the  quality  of  the  officers  as  well  as 
that  of  the  soldiers,  is  considerably  affected  by  their  constant 
participation  in  politics.  Then,  too,  our  army  benefits  by  a 
certain  characteristic  of  the  German  soldier,  which  is  gener- 
ally lacking  in  men  of  the  Latin  countries.  The  reservist  and 
even  the  militiaman  retains  that  which  he  learned  in  active 
service  with  extraordinary  tenacity.  One  must  have  seen  a 
company  of  the  militia  in  the  field  in  order  correctly  to  esti- 
mate the  value  of  this  quality.  I  myself  have  noticed  that  in 
the  work  of  the  engineers,  whose  technical  efficiency  is  most 
easily  forgotten,  they  need  but  one  or  two  days  of  practice, 
in  order  fully  to  regain  their  former  proficiency,  and  require 
but  a  few  directions  in  order  to  act  with  the  same  dexterity 
as  if  they  had  been  dismissed  yesterday,  and  not  ten  years 
ago. 

When  it  comes  to  the  struggle,  we  shall  meet  our  foes 
with  the  same  steadiness  and  determination  for  victory  as  in 
1870,  and  we  shall  remember  that  numbers  alone  do  not 
bring  victory,  but  that  it  will  fall  to  him  who  possesses  the 
greatest  endurance  and  the  last  dollar.  Moreover,  the  motto, 
"Si  vis  pacem,  para  justitiam"  ("If  you  wish  for  peace,  pre- 
pare for  justice"),  which  the  architect  of  the  Peace  Palace 
placed  over  the  window  of  the  great  hall  of  sessions,  para- 
phrasing an  old  saying,  would  lye  all  very  well,  if  there  could 


62          GERMANY'S    HOUR    OF    DESTINY 

be  absolute  justice.  Who  can  decide  whether  Germany  or 
France  is  entitled  to  the  possession  of  Alsace-Lorraine? 
Each  will  always  consider  his  own  the  sole  just  claim.  Then 
it  is  better  that  we  restore  the  saying  to  its  old  time  form : 
"Si  vis  pacem,  para  bellum"  ("If  you  wish  peace,  prepare 
for  war"). 


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